Good morning! Today marks 4 years since the Ukraine war started. And yet, despite enormous casualties, snail pace of any offensive and Trump's efforts, the ceasefire remains elusive:
Trump's preferred deadline of June is looking particularly bad on prediction markets, but maybe the next 3 months will bring some change.
But moving closer to day-to-day matters, today we take a look at SOTU, Mexico and the world of finance, which has its own share of dramas this week.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 SOTU
SOTU is today and while many are trading mention markets, there is one ex-Representative who might be insider trading his own appearance.
George Santos went to X to fuel speculations about his attendance on SOTU. And some comments suggest that he might be swing trading the market. After all, it wouldn't be the first con of his.
#2 Chaos In Mexico
After an explosive Sunday, markets are no longer projecting a US anti-cartel intervention.
Media outlets are reporting that after the initial wave of blockades, arsons and shootings, calm is prevailing. However, the authorities still hold the son of the dead kingpin and the cartel might want to "teach the government a lesson" - in an especially difficult period, between the Iran buildup and FIFA World Cup.
This might not be the last time we are mentioning this market.
#3 Citrini Effect
One of the biggest investment Substackers, Citrini, has published a long-term AI bull thesis that is, well... even more bearish than any bear thesis before him.
It is a quite entertaining read, if not a bit over the top. But what is even more shocking is that it appears his piece might have significantly moved the market, eg. preventing SPX from hitting 7,000. Amazing times we live in.
#4 ZachXBT On A Mission
Crypto internet went wild after a known scam investigator teased a massive expose of insider trading in one of the most profitable crypto businesses.
Prediction markets followed swiftly, and after some comments in which ZachXBT tempered expectations a bit, traders see Meteora as the culprit. Pump.fun was initially pushed as the most likely business, but Zach's comments suggested it is not one of the very biggest players.
#5 Fight For SpaceX
The market ended u split on which bank will lead the SpaceX IPO.
Today's news is that the IPO might be coming in this year and target up to $50 billion in a raise, making it the biggest ever. It is certain that most, if not all of the major investment banks will be involved, as no single institution can or is willing to underwrite that much risk. But recent rumors definitely spooked Morgan Stanley bulls, who bet on the long-standing relationship the bank has with Elon Musk.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.