Good morning! Last night's SOTU speech was pretty tedious and unimpressive, even more so than previous one, which is a bit shocking. Trump is known for his entertaining style, however in our opinion he was not on his best yesterday.
But leaving yesterday in the past, today we focus on the new. One bit, that seems to be the recurring motive, is AI - we are seeing so many new models and applications that we dubbed February the month of AI.
Outside of tech though, we showcase movements on Iran market, give an update on Thai politics and track the bidding war between Paramount and Netflix.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Talks
The market on Iran has been bombarded by conflicting information for weeks, but it finally started to show signs of surrender.
The Yes share price dipped significantly after the SOTU as it became clear that any action can happen only when talks fail. It is now clear that both parties will do their best to reach an agreement, on Thursday and likely on subsequent meetings, however long-term markets are not very optimistic about avoiding strikes.
#2 AI Wars?
AI has become crucial in many industries and war is also one of them. And when it comes to wars, some rules don't count.
And it looks like Anthropic will learn that lesson the hard way. On the one hand it is the best model on the market currently. On the other hand, its focus on safety creates issues for the Department of War which, well... is looking for LLMs to help it with killing adversaries.
the market is now leaning towards Anthropic being banned from the Department of War, after media reports showed that Hegseth is pressuring Anthropic and threatening cutting ties with the company.
#3 Quick Turnaround In Thailand
After an initial surprise in Thai election, the market realized Thai bureaucracy tends to be slow and despite a clear coalition emerging, it put only 25% chance we will see a new prime minister by the end of March.
However, rumors hit the media that the electoral commission might confirm the election results today. In such case, the official negotiations to form a government may start and since the previous ruling party managed to win the election, everyone expects an easy and quick process.
#4 The Month Of AI
February has been full of AI news, new models and new applications. And now the market tells us we might see another model by the end of the month.
Everyone has been expecting to see ChatGPT 5.3 soon, but the market had only ca. 30% chance it will be this week. However, since one of the top holders of No switched sides to Yes on February market, price moved significantly indicating we now have 52% chance to see the model live by the end of the month.
#5 Paramount Flipped Netflix
After reports that Warner Bros. is entertaining Paramount's new offer, the market has now the latter as the favorite to acquire Warner Bros.
There is no news since we last reported the rumor, but it seems that traders see the switch as an indication that the tide might have turned for Paramount. However, we still expect Netflix to fight and make a new offer. After all, the winner might end up with the most extensive library of TV shows and movies available on streaming.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.