Good morning! Today all eyes are on Geneva, where Steve Witkoff with Jared Kushner are meeting the Iranian delegation to once again discuss a potential nuclear deal.
But outside of the world of global deals, today we cover some market inefficiencies and errors with Ukraine war and US embassy in Venezuela as examples + we take a look once again on Clarity Act and Hegseth vs Anthropic drama.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Crucial Conversations
As the talks in Geneva began, the market dove 6 points as a token of good will.
We are sure no one in the room is live trading the talks so we expect this is someone trying to front-run potential bad news. Generally, unless the news hit before we publish, we shouldn't expect massive progress, but rather a constructive meeting with mildly positive outcomes as a base case.
In such situation, the market should stabilize in the low 50s.
#2 The World Caught Up To The Reality
Polymarket Russian aggression markets have a one flaw - they are based on ISW map, which is sometimes updated with a significant delay.
That was the case with Pokrovsk market. Based on reports, the city has been under Russian control since January, however only now the ISW map has been updated to reflect that reality.
#3 A Niche Catch
We initially believed that this market was resolved in a wrong way as no news outlet reported the reopening of the embassy.
However, it turns out that Marco Rubio announced it during his Caribbean trip. Someone surely made a good catch as even we struggled to find the relevant info, but it does show that some markets can resolve on mere mentions by state representatives, that can be hard to track if you are not watching them live.
#4 Back In The Game
After a massive spike down, the market is once again at 69% chance we will see Clarity Act signed into law this year.
There is some news of dubious quality that reports Democrats scrambling before the March 1st deadline, and there is BTC price movement that some traders try to tie to Clarity Act insiders. But ultimately it does seem that the whole move down was rather unwarranted and the market just corrected itself back to the prices from a few days ago.
#5 Noise
Lastly, yesterday we covered Pete Hegseth being rumored to want to ban Anthropic in the Department of War due to their safety terms.
However, the market seems to have overreacted to the rumors. The dramatics are usually followed by closed-door negotiations and now we are aligned with the market when it comes to fair value. News, especially from the Trump administration, often create confusion and volatility before market can find a new equilibrium.
And sometimes, this equilibrium ends up being exactly the same, as was the case with the Clarity Act market.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.