Good morning! The weekend will go by under the constant threat of US strike on Iran - and that's what we will cover today. Especially since traders sharply adjusted their positions.
But outside of global politics, today we focus a bit on business, both AI and entertainment, as well as some niche local politics in Germany with the market as our guide.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Tense Weekend
The market on US strikes on Iran by the end of the month shot up after non-essential personnel from the US embassy in Jerusalem was advised to leave.
However, it is still short of an official evacuation, when the departure is mandatory vs voluntary. What we can see is that not only people, but also traders are anxious and any news, dovish or hawkish, produces outsized movements on the market.
For now, the Omani foreign minister is due to arrive in Washington as well as technical talks between the US and Iran are supposed to start on Monday in Vienna.
#2 Anthropic Struggles
After we thought it died down, the Anthropic x Department of War drama continues, inducing massive volatility on Hegseth to ban Claude market.
After 2 massive spikes, traders are now at 30% chance the ban will happen. All fueled by Anthropic's CEO refusal to drop AI safeguards. One could say that losing government contracts is a massive loss for the business, thus traders mostly refuse to believe that's how it will end. Sometimes a little drama is necessary to align.
#3 Total Capitulation
In an unexpected announcement, Netflix refused to enter into a bidding war and Paramount's superior offer is the only one on the table now.
There can be plenty of reasons to walk away - from a wildly inflated valuation to internal issues at Warner Bros. that were uncovered during due diligence to Netflix deeming the whole thing inconsequential in the long run. But one thing is certain - Paramount bought itself a chance to challenge Netflix in the streaming department.
#4 Niche Election
We also have an interesting movement in the German Baden-Wurttemberg election, where Greens are poised to take the lead.
After these 2 polls (here, and here) dropped last night, traders that were once sure of the CDU victory, no longer felt as confident. We are no experts on German local politics, however a potential Green victory in the environment where AfD is poised for more gains on the national scale is a shocking development.
#5 No ChatGPT
After a brief spike to the high 70s, the market on ChatGPT 5.3 release is now clear - February is not the month.
Turns out that all of the rumors and all of the insiders were just simply fake. The thread on Reddit speculates that the next release window should be around mid March based on the previous cycles, but there is no confirmation from OpenAI for the time being.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you on Monday for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.