Good morning! Today we have an interesting mix of markets to comment on as it seems we cover pretty much everything. From spy stories to moon launches, markets moved in all categories in the last 24 hours.
It couldn't be any different, especially since we are ahead of the news here.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Spy Stories
Despite emerging media coverage, the market is not convinced we will see Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump Cabinet anytime soon. Kristi Noem is still a frontrunner after the Minnesota situation.
A whistleblower report on Tulsi Gabbard leaked to media yesterday. The report is reportedly highly classified, so much so that there is an issue around how to show it to Congress. Gabbard's office presents it as a baseless accusation and a political case.
And ultimately, traders don't see Trump sacking Gabbard, who while sidelined from major national security discussions, is laser focused on 2020 election.
#2 Technicalities
We were told that the last batch of the Epstein files was the final one, but traders still see 95% chance we will see new files in the next 3 days.
It all comes down to a technicality - the market will resolve to Yes even if the new file is a re-upload of the previously available file that was deleted. Some files are taken down due to some errors and are later re-uploaded.
The lesson here is to understand the rules as not every market is as straightforward as it may seem.
#3 Diplomacy Over War
The market is now virtually certain we will see the resumption of US x Iran nuclear talks.
Axios reports that we will see the talks begin even this week, after some traders, including PROPHET ;), put out theses that the whole situation is about the nuclear deal. It still remains to be seen if the discussions are productive, but it's a promising development in an effort to avoid a wider conflict in the region.
#4 The Moon Must Wait
NASA delayed the planned Artemis launch after the wet rehearsal proved to be challenging.
Initially planned to launch as early as February 8th, the next available slots are in mid-March after the wet rehearsal uncovered several issues to be dealt with. NASA is still optimistic it can launch in March, as they expected to run into issues after such a break.
#5 The Race Is Heating Up
We have a rumored new Anthropic model launch supposedly today and the market is already seeing 66% chance we will see a new ChatGPT model by mid-February.
We are not sure what news the market is using to justify such a high chance, outside of an obscure X comment, but with AI race heating up, OpenAI surely needs to up its game if it wants to remain in the race.
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.