Good morning! The week is coming to an end, but with Iran talks, NJ special election and brand new LLMs from OpenAI and Anthropic we have plenty of market moves to cover.
But hey, at least traders that believed in TrumpRX launch got rewarded this time. We are looking forward to see what change can it bring.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 Sometimes The Underdog Wins
We were able to witness a rare event on prediction markets where Analilia Mejia is poised to win a surprising victory over Tom Malinowski in NJ-11 Special Election Democratic Primary.
With 91% of votes counted she is in the lead and there is little chance she can lose it now. It's only logical that situation like that happen - after all prediction markets are very well calibrated, thus an event with 5% chances of happening, must happen once every 20 times, producing a beautiful chart in the process.
#2 Slow Cooking
While the first meeting in Oman is progressing, it is not what many traders expected.
The meeting is indirect, meaning that both countries' delegations don't meet. Every message is carried by Oman, the mediator, while both sides sit in different rooms. Seems like the negotiations can last a long time.
#3 No Mining Megamerger
Glencore and Rio Tinto are no longer projected to merge.
The market adjusted Yes price sharply as it turned out that the parties couldn't really agree on respective valuations. It's a common thing during megamerger talks, but considering how volatile current mining industry is, it isn't necessarily the last time we are hearing about this merger.
#4 Higher
Every day prediction markets gain in popularity. So much so that now the market believes Polymarket will be more popular than Robinhood in the near future.
It's not only trading - many people are visiting Polymarket and other prediction markets to get accurate odds on global events, elections and cultural happenings. And we are more than happy to bring context to these markets, on a daily basis, straight to your inbox!
#5 LLM Progress
Yesterday Anthropic launched its new model while OpenAI matched it by launching a new coding agent. And now it seems the new Anthropic model is close to crushing a new threshold in the Humanity's Last Exam.
The current high score belongs to Google Gemini 3 Pro, but it seems Anthropic Claude Opus 4.6 can beat that. 35% is almost a given while a record breaking 45% is probable by the end of June. Maybe the AI bears are wrong?
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.