Good morning! Today we focus on the record number of resolved markets as the weekend brought us extremely unexpected results in two snap elections in Asia.
Outside weekend elections, we also take a look at UK politics, AI data centers in the US and Opinion Labs token prospects.
Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!
Top Movers
#1 A Japanese Supermajority
The Japanese snap election surprised the market after it turned out the incumbent party did even better than expected.
The party of Takaichi Sanae went into this election to strengthen its position as it previously ruled as a minority government. Now it has a 2/3 supermajority that can even take on changing the constitution. Sometimes risking it all pays off bigly.
#2 An Unexpected Upset
The Thai People's Party has been controversial from the start. The third incarnation of the problematic Move Forward party which won every election it took part in, only to be banned by the Constitutional Court later on.
It was hardly shocking that the people expected it to win easily. The polls were clear, it was the subsequent situation that was supposed to be unclear. Turns out the election was an upset for the People's Party, but the situation ahead is clear as the previous PM is set to continue in his role.
#3 Starmer's Issues
Going into the weekend we highlighted how Epstein files create new issues for the unpopular British PM.
To make matters worse, a key aide of his resigned over the weekend. BBC calls the aide the political brain of Starmer so you can only imagine how dire the situation must be. McSweeney (the aide) was responsible for Lord Mandelson's nomination so he is going out as a scapegoat. However it is a sign of times that the PM needed to get rid of his top advisor to survive (for now).
#4 End Of AI Boom?
After this market launched, immediately traders doubted that any kind of AI data center moratorium can pass, as these data centers are almost solely responsible for US GDP growth in the recent months.
However, some state Democrats in New York proposed to block the building of new centers to help keep the electricity prices in check. Such a move also undermines Trump's agenda, so you could say they might be killing two birds with one stone by proposing this new state bill.
#5 Delays
There is no news on Opinion token, which means the market will experience theta decay, ie. Yes price gradual fall.
Opinion Labs is a mostly fake prediction market (most volume comes from wash trading) where the token launch is probably the only reason anyone trades there. It's the third time we are writing about this market and it got us thinking - maybe it is beneficial for Opinion Labs to delay the launch to keep the userbase engaged?
Wrap up
That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.