Good morning! Last evening we had Trump deliver his remarks and take questions from the media. He reassured us that the war is going well was laser focused on keeping the market up, so we got a raw taco mix of "victory is already here" and "we will bombe some more".
Markets took that as a signal that Trump still cares about it going up and complied. For now, as it becomes increasingly clear that no easy off-ramp exist.
Iran Tracker
#1 The Ceasefire
Since yesterday, chances of a ceasefire rose sharply, before falling somewhat down. They still remain elevated vs Monday, at 54% before the end of April.
All because Trump seemed like he wanted to TACO, only to follow with a conflicting statement... The whole speech was somehow peculiar as Trump proceeded to contradict himself every other sentence. Ultimately, it seems that he is laser focused on keeping the markets steady.
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
Despite a coordinated disinformation campaign, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed.
There is also this neat little dashboard that helps us track movement through the strait. Oil continues to be extremely volatile; first it reached over $110, only to drop below $90 after SPR release tease, ultimately to end at $89 at the moment of this writing. However, traders on Polymarket moved from pricing in new ATHs to pricing in volatility as a move down to $80 is now more likely than a move to $105:
#3 Boots On The Ground
For a week now chances for US forces in Iran continue to fluctuate between 60% and 70%.
The market remains a bit confused as we constantly hear conflicting messaging. The fundamentals are clear, however: the longer the Iranian regime stands, the more likely boots on the ground are. Especially since we no longer expect the Kurds to join the fight:
#4 Iranian Regime Fall
As the Iranian regime continues to show resilience, the chances of their fall are quickly being repriced.
Despite almost zero visibility on the current strikes, the word on the street is that the launches from Iran have increased and there is no indication the US or Israel will be able to stop them soon.
#5 Next Supreme Leader
As ceasefire chances rose slightly, so did the chances of Mojtaba Khamenei to remain as the Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of they year.
Many expect the US and Israel to target him, especially after Trump's not so favorable comments. There are also rumors Khamenei junior might be more radical than his father and more aligned with the highly ideological IRGC. Conclusion: the fight is on.
Wrap up
Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.