Good morning! We are not slowing down as both sides are doubling down. Recent scarce reports suggest Iran is sustaining its firing rate while on the US side the marines were seen passing the Strait of Malacca en route to the Persian Gulf. Additionally, strikes continue across Lebanon, which tends to be forgotten when speaking of this war.
The experts increasingly sound the alarm as Asian countries implement the first measures to save oil and gas. On the other side there are plenty of pundits, or "plan trusters" as I like to call them now, who want to convince you that all is going according to the plan and you shouldn't worry.
Let us tell you something: look at the prediction markets and make your own decision. That's the most accurate forecast of the future you'll see online.
Iran Tracker
#1 The Ceasefire
Ceasefire chances continue to be flat. The increasingly prevailing pattern now is that each bullish message elevates the chances and the spike remains semi-permanent even as bearish messages come.
Even the recent public refusal of any ceasefire negotiations from Iran had no impact on the price. Traders clearly tend to cling to bullish messaging from Trump. Very likely that alternative future is too difficult to stomach.
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed with now only 31% chance we will see over 20 ships pass it in a single day by the end of the month.
This comes as hopes of any US-led escort operation this month evaporate:
In the meantime, the price of oil continues to be stubborn be manipulated in hopes to keep the markets steady long enough for escort operations to start:
#3 Boots On The Ground
US forces in Iran also remain flat as there is no news other than the marines unit crossing the Strait of Malacca.
Similarly there is no news about the Kurds, Kharg Island or any other boots on the ground type of operation. In fact, there is little news on what is the aim of this whole operation.
However, traders do see 26% chance of the US taking Kharg by the end of April. Quite a lot.
#4 Iranian Regime Fall
Iran regime fall chances stay elevated after Larijani was assassinated by an Israeli strike.
BBC calls some kind of a crisis, but recent wide decapitation strikes showed us that the regime is more resilient than 1 person (or a 100). It's a country of 90 million people with a regime that had 47 years to entrench itself. It did.
#5 Next Supreme Leader
Despite the killing of Larijani, Khamenei junior chances of being the Supreme Leader by the end of the year stayed flat.
Traders are expecting Iran to protect its leader even more now to send a proper message to the world. First and foremost an ideological leader, Ayatollah is important for all the Shia muslims around the world. Due to that, the US might not be that keen on eliminating him, seeing that Khamenei senior's death achieved little to no effect.
Wrap up
Situation remains extremely volatile, however it is starting to become clear that we are in for longer. At least until the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved as now ceasefire chances are below 50% for end of April strike.
Make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.