We are abandoning the regular format in order to bring you key information regarding Middle East from prediction markets. While the fog of war is thick, traders are pricing in risk in real time.
From ceasefire to WW3, we are here to bring you up to speed with most recent developments in one of the most risky global events in years.
For now, Iran continues to attack countries in the region in an effort to bring the whole region down with it in case US x Israel don't stop the attacks.
Iran Tracker
#1 The Ceasefire
Despite early optimism, the market now projects there will be no ceasefire at least till the end of March.
Footage from the ground as well as comments from world leaders suggest that it will take some time for the fight to end. Iran is currently attacking in a decentralized manner, something that supposedly has been in the works since the last conflict in 2025.
Looks like traders are slowly realizing that with each hour, each missile and drone, the conflict will be tougher to contain quickly.
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
Market on the closure of one of the most important straits in the world is currently extremely volatile.
There is no official closure of the strait, however ships are mostly waiting after a few tankers were hit and insurers started to deny coverage. Additionally Maersk has suspended all traffic through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
The situation continues to be volatile as markets and traders think about long-term consequences of the war. For now though oil markets seem to have stabilized, with brent just below $80 per barrel.
#3 Boots On The Ground
As the situation spirals out of control, trades try to assess the possibility of US boots on the ground.
However, for now it seems unlikely we will see American soldiers on Iranian soil. Despite early casualties, for now airstrikes are the preferred method. In case of no deescalation soon, we might see the price of Yes rising though.
#4 Iranian Regime Fall
After the news of Khamenei's death hit the headlines, market surged on the Iranian regime fall.
But now traders are starting to see that thanks to previously mentioned mosaic defense, combined with deeply entrenched IRGC, the regime might be more resilient than previously thought. Tomorrow we might see the Yes price significantly lower depending on the next 24 hours.
#5 Next Supreme Leader
Contrary to early thinking, Khamenei's death didn't derail a succession process as the Ayatollahs are in the process of electing a new leader.
However, the information coming from Iran is sparse, partly due to ongoing strikes and partly due to a total internet outage in the country. Earlier it was said that Alireza Arafi will be the next Supreme Leader, but then rumors started to emerge that he was eliminated in strikes on Tehran.
Wrap up
Situation remains extremely volatile so make sure to follow the markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.