Good morning! Yesterday some unforeseen travel circumstances prevented us from sharing our daily brief, but we are back in business today. It looks like we have a lot of ground to cover as traders both on traditional and prediction markets are bullish peace.

Let's look at how the markets changed since Monday.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

Chances for permanent peace went up significantly, reaching 54% by end of May.

It's the first time since the beginning of the war when traders see a deal as the most likely scenario. Trump is extremely bullish as he continues to tease the next round of talks and an imminent end to the war.

Similarly, chances of the ceasefire ending dumped hard as Trump found a cunning way to pressure Iran without going kinetic, ie. through a blockade:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Despite the general bullishness on peace, traders are not confident we will see traffic normalization by the end of the month.

Even with a peace deal in place, ships might not be as quick to sail. Those who are in the Persian Gulf would surely scramble to leave, but considering a decent chance of a permanent fee being implemented, we can expect a queue. And with rules of the market being rather strict, there might not be enough time to normalize traffic.

However, traders do see an increase in traffic as highly probable again:

And so do commodities traders with oil prices once again below $100:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Invasion chances normalized around 30% amid all the rumors about another round of talks.

Even as more and more equipment and troops are being sent to the region, traders see it as a pressure tactic. Additionally, the blockade made a Kharg Island invasion less likely as it would achieve similar results:

#4 Regional Expansion

A regional expansion looks extremely unlikely at this point. With all countries, even Gulf ones, chances of joining the conflict below 10%.

Every Iran-related market screams peace at this point. Of course, there is still chaos and volatility, however directional moves are strong and sustained by mostly sharp traders that accumulate large positions for peace.

The same can be said about Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Regime fall chances are also hitting new lows amid possible peace.

Iran looks eager to secure the wins it got and end the conflict, even if it means concessions around the nuclear issue. After all, it looks like ballistic missiles were enough to deter the ground invasion.

Wrap up

We see a lot of hope in the markets, but this time it is sustained by bullish developments on the ground. Still a lot can happen, but there is a path to peace.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.