Good morning! There is a chance this is the last special edition of our Morning Brief. Yesterday Trump hinted on going to Pakistan to sign the final agreement, sending ripples through the markets.

At the same time more and more equipment is being sent to the region as a pressure tactic, or simply just in case. The situation remains dynamic, but let's see what the markets think.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

Chances for peace sustained around 40% by the end of the month, with a ceasefire deadline chances at 26% and a deal by end of May being more likely than not.

Trump's announcement made waves, especially on the April 22 market, but we still lack an official confirmation that would send the markets up to bond territory. That being said, the sharps are mostly on the Yes side. At the same time the ceasefire lasting beyond initial deadline is now almost a certainty:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Even with general bullishness about a deal, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed by a double blockade and chances are low we will se a proper normalization of traffic by the end of the month.

That being said, chances of at least a partial resumption of traffic this month increased, with 20+ ships passing at 75% chances in any day:

A lot depends on the shape of the deal which is for now unknown. That being said, Polymarket traders think sanctions relief and unfreezing of Iranian assets are likely, while a toll is dubious. When looking at chances, remember that there is a steep discount due to a deal in April having only 42% chances at this point - if you remove the discount all of the below are above 50% likely outside of the fee, which would be at ca. 17%:

Energy prices are also cautiously bullish deal with red across the board as we go into the weekend:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Boots on the ground remain stable at 31%, indicating that long-term expectations of a deal are also stable.

The massive airlift ongoing is perceived as a continuation of operational readiness, rather than a prelude to a certain escalation. It is an important signal as some media push an escalation narrative based on these movements. Thanks to markets we know that it might be an overstatement by them.

#4 Regional Expansion

Regional expansion is flat, aligned with peace and invasion markets.

However, Houthi are threatening preparations for Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure, sending chances on the market higher. That being said, they are still low:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances are also flat since yesterday as there is no indication of any cracks in the regime.

Wrap up

We see a lot of hope in the markets, but this time it is sustained by bullish developments on the ground. Still a lot can happen, but there is a path to peace. We should expect meeting confirmation today or during the weekend. Otherwise, the bullishness might quickly change into bearishness on peace.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Additionally, there are voices saying that a prolonged economic slowdown is now inevitable with the strait being closed for so long. We will continue to monitor energy situation in Asia and Europe.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.