Good morning! Last few hours have been extremely volatile. We had rumors of ceasefire being finalized, only to hear both sides rejecting the conditions as Kharg Island was hit by joint Israel-US airstrikes.
Be it a market narrative, or a real struggle of factions inside both Iran and the US, the conflict looks like it's spiraling out of control. Let's look at the markets nd try to make sense out of it.
Iran Tracker
#1 The Ceasefire
The ceasefire chances erased all the gains they made today on the rejection news and we are back to yesterday's levels with a further move downward being very likely.
It is more and more clear that there are groups of interests that want to see the war continue. However, the situation remains dynamic and we are looking at a volatile day.
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed while ship traffic forecast is down.
With an apparent escalation in the works right now, the chances for a US escort operation remain low:
A hit on Kharg Island only makes the situation more dire with key energy commodities being up on the news:
#3 Boots On The Ground
The chances for a proper US invasion are slightly up. A hit on the Kharg Island resulted in chances of its invasion rising sharply:
Yesterday, we highlighted a massive airlift that happened over the weekend. Traders must believe that targeting Kharg Island might indicate it being a target for an invasion. Recent Trump comments on funding also indicate we might be in for quite a long war after all.
#4 Regional Expansion
All the war news had little impact on the broader regional expansion chances.
At the same time the UAE continues its hawkish narrative. It is clear that they want the war to resolve in Tehran's fall rather than a compromise. For now it's mostly talk though as Houthis are also not eager for now to escalate:
#5 Iran Regime Fall
But all the ceasefire talk makes traders think the regime is at least somewhat coherent, decreasing chances of its collapse.
Resilient. Still.
Wrap up
That's all for today. We will continue to monitor the situation as we are potentially entering a dangerous period, as indicated by Qatari sources.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.