Good morning! It's been 24 hours and being honest, we didn't learn much. But we have more certainty that some meeting will happen. It is still unclear though whether Trump, JD Vance or neither of them will go.

The Iranian delegation should also be in place as more and more confirmations of that surface in the media. However, the overall picture is... somewhat chaotic, even on prediction markets.

Take a look at how traders price in the most consequential week of 2026.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

Short-term peace market is trading between 15% and 20% since Sunday, as traders expected some progress on official talks till then.

However, longer term strikes are still above 50%, indicating that a deal is more likely than not. Additionally, Trump said it is unlikely he would extend the ceasefire beyond Wednesday, indicating a deal is almost ready.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

While end of April market on the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization is tight, traders see as much as 70% chance of traffic normalization by end of May.

Outside of deal markets, this is probably the clearest indication that traders expect the end to the conflict. Deal markets have specific rulesets, while the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization (above 60 ships on 7-day moving average) can only happen when hostilities end definitely.

Traders are also more hopeful than a week ago about daily ship movement till end of April:

Energy prices also reflect the sentiment, with oil being even lower than yesterday:

#3 Boots On The Ground

US invasion chances remain flat, an indication of uncertainty about the near future.

As rumors swung from war, to a simple ceasefire extension to a proper peace deal, traders felt stable about US boots on the ground - for us it means that the current situation is rather about ceasefire extension vs proper deal than war vs peace.

A hopeful message definitely.

#4 Regional Expansion

Chances of a regional expansion remain low. Neither UAE nor Saudi Arabia are expected to join the conflict, even if the US decides for another round of hostilities.

The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is also expected to stay unblocked, showing us that recent Houthi threats are only that.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Regime fall chances also remain flat at 20%.

Last 3 categories being stable and on the lower chances of happening make us believe that the current chaos is about the shape of the deal, rather than a possible resumption of fighting.

Wrap up

Trump is due to speak on CNBC on 8:30 AM ET, we expect him to bring us some bullish news as the end of ceasefire deadline looms.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.