Good morning! Today is the day of Polymarket migration to new infra and trading will be unavailable for close to an hour. Thus all the markets here will be presented as pre trading halt.
When it comes to the special military combat operation, we are in a somewhat quiet period as talks are stalling and both sides are waiting for the other to blink first. As the time goes, we have worrying updates on both sides - Iran is struggling to keep the oil wells pumping with storage capacity shrinking while the global economy is on the brink of collapse due to energy and fertilizer shock combined with possible massive El Nino coming.
So let's look at what traders think ahead of the halt.
Iran Tracker
#1 Peace
Chances for peace continue to go down on no signs of progress, reaching only 44% on the end of June market.
Trump is reportedly unhappy with the recent Iranian proposal, where they offer double Strait of Hormuz opening as phase 1, with nuclear and other matters to be negotiated later.
One could say Iranians are offering him a somewhat clean exit to the previous status quo as it would mean accepting that the military action achieved no results, but other will tell that it is the first sign of Iranians blinking. For us, truth is in the middle - it can be both at the same time.
But with Trump's defiance, chances of the special combat operation being wrapped up soon decreased:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
Chances of the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization are flat on the news above.
A pure TACO, like Iranians are offering, was never an option for Trump, thus the lack of reaction of the market. But when we look at energy market, it starts to tell a more compelling story. It looks like it is starting to price in a prolonged closure of the strait as shown by the market above, with WTI just below $100 per barrel:
#3 Boots On The Ground
US invasion chances also remain stable as the current situation suggests a prolonged ceasefire, rather than imminent escalation to boots on the ground.
The massive airlift to the region continues, however one must wonder how much of it is military equipment and how much of it is food for ca. 50,000 troops in the region. CENTCOM food supply chains must be in a bad shape with the double blockade and no access to usual military bases needed for logistics.
#4 Regional Expansion
With the prolonged ceasefire scenario materializing, chances of a regional expansion of the conflict are flat.
There is still no reason for the Houthis to engage. However, once economic pain in Iran intensifies, they can be activated to escalate pain.
#5 Iran Regime Fall
Despite the prospect of oil wells shutting in, Iranian regima fall chances are mostly flat.
We should be cautious to draw conclusions here, but it might be a soft indication that traders do not believe Iranian breaking point is coming soon, contrary to what Trump is claiming.
Wrap up
The no war, but no peace scenario is materializing in front of our eyes. And with war lasting 2 months now, starting next week we will be transitioning towards a more general reporting on our Morning Briefs. Pretty soon we will start to see the effects of the double blockade globally and prediction markets offer the bet window into the global situation in the coming months.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.