Good morning! The uncertainty continues as we await first action in round 2 of the Iran war. Today we had rumors of an either F-35 or F-15 downed over Iran, however for now unconfirmed. Additionally, Trump threatened to first target bridges and then energy infrastructure, should Iran not surrender.
Some generals were also fired, sparking all kinds of rumors online, from a coup attempt to a purge to eliminate those unwilling to commit to the war.
So let's look what prediction markets think ahead of the weekend.
Iran Tracker
#1 The Ceasefire
Ceasefire chances continue to find the new lows as we are awaiting the weekend action.
Traders expect the second round to last longer than 2-3 weeks and / or they don't see it as the final one. With Iranian resilience and current strategic leverage, the chances for a quick end are getting away.
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed while traders see coin-flip chances of 20+ ships passing the strait by the end of the month in a single day.
The chances increased slightly as the first French ship was observed crossing the strait unbothered. More countries will try to work with Iran to resume traffic, however any escalation might further endanger the strait traffic.
And with no escort operation in sight, it is only logical oil breached new highs before the weekend:
#3 Boots On The Ground
As we enter the long weekend, chances of US boots on the ground are reapproaching all time highs.
Partly fueled by the sheer number of US troops in the region (over 50,000) and partly by Trump saying that the real destruction has not even begun, traders start to see ground ops as inevitable. However, it is still unclear what will be the target of the operation as Kharg Island invasion remains unlikely:
#4 Regional Expansion
Chances of either Saudi Arabia or UAE entering the conflict increased ahead of the UN Security Council vote and the weekend.
The Gulf-led effort to legalize the action under UN has reportedly failed before the vote has even started. And when it comes to second biggest risk (Bab-el-Mandeb strait), chances rose significantly ahead of the long weekend:
#5 Iran Regime Fall
You know the drill. Resilient. Entrenched.
Wrap up
That's all for today. Do enjoy the Easter long weekend whether you celebrate to holiday or not and hopefully the world economy will survive whatever is coming our way.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.