Good morning! It's another day in which we have literally no progress on the peace talks. After an extremely hopeful last week, the mood is surely down across the world as more and more people start to face the real consequences of the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, there is a glimpse of hopium for those who still want it - Trump is reportedly eyeing one last diplomatic push by the end of the week. But do the markets trust him? Let's see.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

Permanent peace chances continued to trend down as there is no apparent progress on the talks.

Trump continues to claim that the ceasefire is indefinite, but some voices tell us the deadline is by the end of the week, after which strikes might begin again.

Traders are aligned with that view, as short-term end of war chances are closely tracking peace deal chances:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is now projected to not normalize by the end of May.

With peace talks stalled, traders have low faith in normalization, especially in a scenario of a prolonged ceasefire that affirms the new status quo. Energy prices also reflect the sentiment with Brent once again above $100 per barrel:

With that, the global economic outlook looks more dire by the day as European airlines started to cut the least profitable routes in anticipation of jet fuel shortage.

#3 Boots On The Ground

Despite talks stalling, US invasion chances remain flat at 30%.

Trump is famously wary of sending boots on the ground as he prefers a quick and decisive win. Additionally, sending troops in would mean a prolonged conflict that would affect the Republicans during midterms election.

That being said, in case of ceasefire breaking, this market is due to spike back above 60c.

#4 Regional Expansion

Regional expansion chances are on the lowest level ever, however we lack the end of May market to properly assess the risk.

With a week left in April though, expectations are for one last diplomacy push, making any military involvement from the Gulf extremely unlikely in the near term.

On the other side of the Arabian peninsula, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure chances are mostly flat at 18% as even in case of the resumption of hostilities, there is no clear indication Houthis would jump in immediately:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Despite an obvious rift inside the Iranian regime, the chances of its fall are mostly flat at 22%.

Even in case of resumed fighting, the regime is strong enough to sustain a prolonged military campaign, at the same time being able to inflict costs on its enemy.

Wrap up

There is no good news since yesterday and with the continued military airlift to the Middle East, we need to start to price in a resumption of hostilities. That being said, we should expect some bullish news coming into the weekend. It will be for us to judge whether they are aimed solely at markets, or if there is a nugget of truth in them.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.