Good morning! We are now in a volatile time as peace developments remain fragile amid further military buildup and continued military campaign in Lebanon. We are still even unsure whether we will get the peace talks in Islamabad as Iranian ambassador to Pakistan deleted his earlier tweet about it.
So let's see the markets to understand where we are heading.
Iran Tracker
#1 The Ceasefire
Traders remain bullish about end of hostilities today, even amid some strikes recorded on Bahrain.
There were also rumors on USAF tankers heading towards Iran, however till now we have no confirmed reports of Israeli / US strikes on Iran since late last night. The parties are also supposed to meet today or tomorrow in Islamabad, but it remains to be seen whether the meeting even takes place.
For now traders give 85% chance JD Vance will meet with the Iranian delegation by the end of April:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
Traders remain bearish on the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, despite it being promised by Trump.
For now almost no boats are crossing as Iran is furious about Israel continuing to attack Lebanon. It is clear now that neither Israel nor the Gulf states were consulted during dubious ceasefire talks.
Energy prices remain high as no traffic is resumed and problems continue to pile up in extraction, refining, transport and general supply chains.
#3 Boots On The Ground
Invasion chances remain elevated at 31% as traders see a difficult path towards peace with many regional actors dissatisfied with the current arrangement.
Additionally, all US personnel will remain in the region while the reinforcements are still on the way. Kharg Island invasion chances stabilized near last week's levels as well:
Prediction markets show us that chances for a restart remain high.
#4 Regional Expansion
Regional expansion chances remain elevated as the UAE is reported to have attacked Iran and Iran is reported to have attacked the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia.
On the other hand, the Bab-el-Mandeb strait looks quite safe with. only 13% chance of closure by the end of the month. Seems like for now the Houthi are not looking to reignite the war.
#5 Iran Regime Fall
Iranian regime fall chances remain elevated as peace talks are fragile. Iran is threatening exit if the offensive on Lebanon is not stopped.
The next few days will certainly be as volatile as the last 2.
Wrap up
We observe the situation and see more equipment being sent to the region as progress on talks and terms is... negative. there is nothing really agreed on and 2 sides are still far apart.
We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.