Good morning! The weekend was pretty uneventful as we heard little news from either the Trump-Xi summit or the Iran war.
We enter the week looking at Iran, Keir Starmer, who is under mounting pressure to resign, Romania, where a new PM is due to be announced soon and SpaceX, which may IPO sooner than expected.
Let's look at the markets to see the latest forecast.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
The chances for peace in Iran continue to trend lower as we have no news on progress in the negotiations.
Iran is reportedly getting ready for a new round of fighting. At the same time, Trump is teasing an Iran invasion on Truth Social. However, traders reaction is somewhat muted as we've already been through several narrative escalations:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. Traders give only 28% chance we will see traffic normalization by the end of June.
With hardly any bullish news, there is little hope of progress. Energy prices also start to reflect that, defying the consensus view of BB banks:
#3 A Consolation Prize
The China summit was an uneventful one, but Trump got his consolation prize with the US-China Board of Trade and US-China Board of Investment.
The two entities are tasked with managing the business relationship between the two conutries. However, for now there is little to manage as China is yet to confirm any specifics of the arrangements.
#4 The Next PM Of Romania?
Delia Velculescu, the current deputy director at the IMF, is being floated as the next technocratic PM.
In order to avoid a snap election, the Romanian president is looking for a candidate that can bring 2 pro-European parties together. Traders seem bullish on her prospects of securing the job.
#5 SpaceX Record-Breaking IPO
SpaceX is reportedly targeting June 12th as the IPO date.
Traders are looking for clues on the space giant's valuation. Currently it is reported that the company is looking to raise around $75 billion with a valuation north of $1.75 trillion. However, considering the bullishness of the stock market, some traders believe a valuation over $2 trillion is possible.
Wrap up
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.