Good morning! It's been a busy day for the world. We have new updates on the Iran war, with Trump cooking yet another taco.
In Romania, we have a government forming exercise that proves to be more difficult than anticipated. Outside of politics, we are taking a look at measles in the US as the recent forecast spiked. Additionally, we look back on the Musk vs Altman market, trying to understand whether the traders saw the court's decision coming.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
We've missed Trump's regular taco routine. Just yesterday, he claimed that he was postponing a planned attack on Iran due to good progress in the negotiations.
However, the market is no longer receptive to rumors. You can try to game the market only for so long. At some point, you'll lose the trust you had. Seeing how the price moved from 8c to 16c, only to fall back to 12c hours later, makes us confident that this moment was reached.
The chances for another round of strikes is flat on the news:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. The market has barely moved on the progress news, showing that our assessment from above is correct.
Energy markets seems to be aligned with this view as well, with Brent crude trading above $110 per barrel:
#3 No More Favorites In Romania
Delia Velculescu is no longer the favorite to be the next PM of Romania.
Rumors have it that there was no alignment between the main parties. Nicusor Dan, the president of Romania, claimed that the process would go on until there is a pro-Western majority government. Traders seem to be waiting for a new signal to move the prices on the market.
#4 Measles Forecast Update
After the hantavirus and ebola, it's time to look again at a real problem spreading in the US - measles.
Since our last update, the forecast went down. However, in the recent days we had a big spike, with traders currently forecasting 3,576 cases by the end of the year. The forecast is now pretty much aligned with Metaculus.
#5 Lost Cause
Even though Elon Musk was a slight favorite to win the case against Sam Altman, he ended up losing in the trial.
Traders had him as an underdog for 2 months now. The case was thrown out on a technicality with the jury claiming that Musk failed to file his lawsuit in time. Musk is vowing to appeal the verdict and bashed the decision as a dangerous precedent allowing charities to be robbed.
Wrap up
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.