Good morning! Overnight we had plenty of developments. First, Trump agreed to suspend the Operation Project Freedom, aiming to escort ships out of the Persian Gulf, citing good developments in negotiations, then we had news of both sides finishing the work on a one-page MOU to end the war.

While the political world focused on Iran, we also got interesting markets and movements across currency black markets, FDA approvals and AI. Let's take a look!

Main Events Of The Day

#1 Iran Peace

Peace chances rallied after Axios report on a one-page memo to end the war being finalized.

That being said, we are still at 28% chances till end of May and 51% till end of June, indicating that traders are cautious of new bullish developments after weeks of misleading narratives.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, but the market reacted positively on the news of end of war memo.

For now the market trades at the same price as peace, but if we don't get a deal fast, a discount will start to appear as normalization of traffic takes time to materialize. Energy markets also reacted positively, with WTI dropping below $100 per barrel:

#3 Currency Black Markets

In countries, where access to hard currency is difficult, due to an impossible peg or war, black markets spawn with widely different prices for much needed USD. Recently, we started to have markets on the black market price of Iranian Rials:

Besides offering great insights into the forecasted state of Iranian economy (which obviously looks a lot better after the potential deal announcement), it is also a great way to hedge currency risk.

While Iranians are unlikely to be able to access Polymarket, many countries in Africa grapple with similar problems. We hope to see more markets like that, that can help businesses and people inside badly managed economies.

#4 Psychedelics Coming Back To Good Graces?

There was a time research on the use of LSD, MDMA and other psychedelics to treat mental illness like depression or PTSD was promising and advancing fast. However, shortly after that the US government banned any use of psychedelics. Now, the situation might change.

Traders now give 65% chances the FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use this year after it turned out that Trump's executive order from April 18th opened a path for three companies receiving National Priority Vouchers to speed their psychedelic drugs through the approval process.

Trial results are extremely positive and we are waiting to see if they live up to their promise.

#5 Gemini 3.2 Is Coming

Traders are now nearly certain we will see Gemini 3.2 in the next 3 weeks.

New model is rumored to launch during the upcoming google I/O conference happening on May19-20th. Can Google catch up in coding with its main competitors though? We will find out soon.

Wrap up

Iran war continues its roller-coaster. We do hope it ends soon as you can see that plenty of interesting markets and developments happen across politics, healthcare and tech.

We will continue to monitor the Iran situation as it develops.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.