Good morning! The situation around Iran remains tense as the war narrative intensifies. However, the big news today is outside of Iran.
US officials supposedly met with the representatives of the Cuban regime, aiming to cut a deal and avoid another war. Domestically, we had some crucial primaries results on the Republican side.
This and more in today's Morning Brief!
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
The war narrative is on the rise. Trump supposedly held a tense phone call with Netanyahu while Iran threatens a wide retaliation if the US were to resume strikes.
The chances for peace are flat on the week on the news. At the same time, the chances for war are once again elevated. With 48% chance of the Iranian airspace closure by the end of the month, traders essentially think we are at a coin-flip level:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
As the war narrative dominates the news, the chances for the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization hit a new low.
Only a permanent peace can sustainably resume traffic through the strait. However, in theory, an effective strike campaign can bring a deal closer to reality. That's our only explanation for the energy prices being slightly in the red today:
#3 The Situation In Cuba Develops
The market on the next US x Cuba diplomatic meeting rose sharply on the news that the acting US ambassador met with the Cuban foreign ministry officials.
The situation around Cuba intensifies as the US is expected to officially indict Raul Castro over his alleged role in the 1996 shootdown of the civilian aircraft belonging to Brothers to the Rescue. We should expect further news on the matter as the pace of the developments accelerates.
#4 A Close Call In Kentucky
Thomas Massie unexpectedly lost the Republican Primaries for the KY-04 seat.
Massie is known for his rejection of the Israeli money as well as his recent rifts with Trump. The last polls before the vote showed Ed Gallrein inching above Massie and since then prediction markets' sharps had him as the slight favorite.
#5 Ken Paxton Confirmed
Ken Paxton is set to win the Texas Republican Senate Primary after an endorsement from Trump.
Outside of one moment in the mid-March, he was a rather strong favorite to win. Texas is a crucial seat for Senate Republicans who still hope to avoid a Democratic Sweep during midterms:
Wrap up
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.