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Doug Crescenzi

Doug Crescenzi
Future of OpenAI & Forecasting Best AI Models

Future of OpenAI & Forecasting Best AI Models

OpenAI For-Profit Odds Surge as AI Leadership Race Heats Up

15 May 2025
Assessing China’s Geopolitical Risk

Assessing China’s Geopolitical Risk

A high China Risk Index has the potential to disrupt $2.5 trillion in annual trade

13 May 2025
Likelihood of US-Iran Nuclear Deal?

Likelihood of US-Iran Nuclear Deal?

US-Iran Nuclear Deal Likelihood Index hits 73.9%

08 May 2025
Israel Military & Geopolitical Risk Index

Israel Military & Geopolitical Risk Index

A dynamic look into the nation's evolving risk landscape

06 May 2025

India on Brink of Military Conflict?

Our India Conflict Risk Index synthesizes market signals

01 May 2025

Is Recession Coming to the U.S.?

Significant market moves in the last 24 hours provide insight

29 Apr 2025

Russia’s Kyiv Blitz Torpedoes Ceasefire Odds

Will the U.S. walk away from the process?

24 Apr 2025

Bitcoin's Resilience Amid Macro Turmoil

Is Bitcoin decoupling?

22 Apr 2025

Tariffs, Tweets, and Tensions: Powell Holds Firm as Trump Fires up

Jay Powell pushed out? Markets think unlikely.

17 Apr 2025

Likelihood of conflict with Iran decreasing?

Prediction market money thinks so.

15 Apr 2025
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