Welcome to another week. Last one was full of nice photo-ops and meetings, this one is poised to bring new updates on the Ukraine war. And outside of team west affairs, we might have seen the aftermath of the Chinese coup.
All the while, prediction markets continue to dominate the discourse, less so as a place to gamble, and more as a source of information. We are on the frontier of geopolitical analysis here so click that subscribe button and see the world for yourself!
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
The domestic news cycle was dominated by another ICE shooting in Minnesota; but the real deal of the week were the new National Defense Strategy and massive winter storms.
The Pentagon released its new National Defense Strategy. Updated after 4 years, it draws heavily from the NSS published at the end of 2025.
Comment: I’m in the process of reading it, but there is nothing especially shocking if you read the NSS or listened to Trump anywhere during the last 2 years.
More than 20 states declared a state of emergency, 15,000 flights were grounded and up to a foot of snow fell across the US as Storm Fern brought extreme winter conditions. Almost 1 million people were left without power.
Comment: imagine what a harsh winter it is for Ukraine. That being said hope that all of you, my American readers, are doing good!
ICE agents killed a man in Minneapolis. Video of the incident shows several agents wrestling the man to the ground before shooting him multiple times. The Department of Homeland Security claims the victim had a gun and refused to disarm. Tim Walz called on the Trump admin to end the crackdown in his state.
Comment: expect such actions (violent protests, not necessarily killings) to be in the permanent line-up of the news cycle this year. I’m in the meantime eyeing the invocation of the Insurrection Act.
Trump filed a lawsuit against JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon, accusing it of cutting ties with him for political reasons. Trump demanded $5 billion in compensation. It is part of Trump’s campaign against debanking.
Comment: excellent, I hope they won’t settle (unlikely) and the courts order the bank to pay even more. Banks are way too rigid and politicized.
The Americas
Today we have the trifecta - Canada, Greenland and Venezuela. Greenland was an especially hot topic, but as usual, the endgame is way less sensational.
Mark Carney, after signing a flurry of deals with China, went to Davos and made a speech that shocked the world. He repeated the X classic of the end of the rules-based order, the multipolar world, etc. Trump threatened 100% tariffs in response, unless the deal with China is off the table; he said he wouldn’t allow Canada to become a drop off port for Chinese goods bound for the US.
Comment: besides powerful speeches and nice-looking photo-ops, Carney is in a bit of a pickle. It seems he didn’t really consult the deals with some of the local communities, eg. auto-producing Ontario. He also might have underestimated Trump’s reaction. I expect trade deal negotiations with the US to be especially harsh after this little performance.
Davos was full of Greenland threats coming from both sides. Trump wanted it all while Denmark was sending additional troops to the island. But ultimately Trump with Rutte agreed on a framework of a deal on using some land. And so the tariffs were withdrawn.
Comment: this is classic Trump - give outrageous demands to settle for exactly what you want. It amazes me how most still can’t see it for what it is. BTW article on how the deal might look like is coming, hopefully this week.
Venezuela’s national assembly voted to open up the oil sector to domestic and foreign companies. It needs to pass a second vote, but after that private firms will be allowed to operate oil fields and profit from exports for a royalty paid to the state. Media are also questioning whether any American oil giants would want to invest in Venezuela.
Comment: seems like Delcy is managing her stakeholders pretty well while pushing legislation to appease the Americans. Let’s see how long will it last. On the issue of American giants investing in Venezuela, worry not; they will be forced by Trump if they don’t do this willingly.
Asia
RUMINT from Asia suggests we had a coup attempt in China, however we should all remain cautious of such rumors. One that is certain is that something did happen.
Chinese defense ministry first said it was investigating Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, two high-level military officials. Mr Zhang was also one of the most trusted advisors to Xi. Then China’s official newspaper accused Zhang and Lui of enabling corruption and challenging the authority of Xi Jinping. Ultimately Zhang is also accused of leaking secrets about nuclear program to the US.
Comment: as the mantra goes: “don’t believe anything that goes out of China”. But at the same time there is a grain of truth in everything. Most probably what we are witnessing is an aftermath of a coup attempt of sorts, however it is unclear how far it could have went. I wouldn’t spend my time on this as there is low chance we can now the internal affairs of the Chinese.
As Takaichi Sanae is bracing for snap election she triggered, bonds react accordingly by their yields rising to 4%. Investors are likely concerned about her plan to cut taxes.
Comment: I don’t have a proper economics thesis now… yen has been in an interesting situation for some time now. Also a lot depends on the Fed choice. Let me know if you want a deep dive on economics for this year.
To Lam won a new five-year term as a leader of Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party, after an unanimous vote. He pledged to pursue national growth of at least 10% and overhaul the economy.
Comment: I didn’t go very deep here, but it seems bullish for Vietnam as he is a reformist looking to obtain presidency as well and foreign investors like his plans.
Middle East & Africa
It was a rather quiet week in the Middle East & Africa, but a lot happened that can shape the future of the region.
Trump officially launched his Board of Peace in Davos. Over 20 countries accepted the invitation, many more still mull it (including Russia and Belarus), while others (mainly Western Europe) rejected it.
As the Board of Peace marks the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, Trump also unveiled plans for a new Gaza. Under the scheme, around $30 billion would be invested into building hotels, industrial complexes and data centers.
Comment: it looks like Trump is looking to make Gaza a special economic zone in the Middle East. He also seems to want to make the Board of Peace something more than just a body governing Gaza. I wouldn’t call it the new UN, but rather a cluster of countries that at least somehow want to be aligned with the US.
Syrian army extended its ceasefire with the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish militia, for 15 days. Syria wants them to disarm and integrate into the Syrian armed forces.
Comment: I think the US is trying to pressure both sides to make a deal so the Kurds finally have a place to live (or get them ready to attack Iran). We are in very early stages of the process of giving Kurds at least some autonomy, or a comfort to live on a country that accepts them, but it will be a bumpy process.
Uganda’s army chief said that the security forces had detained ca. 2,000 opposition supporters and killed 30 people after a disputed election on January 15th.
Comment: just another day in Africa, there power belongs to the strongest. At least until team west reengages on the continent.
Europe
While Europe was extremely busy this week with Davos, the real European developments centered about the (justified) outrage about Greenland (already covered), Ukraine peace and some domestic developments across European nations.
Zelensky initially cancelled his plans to travel to Davos, due to a dire situation in the country, but ultimately the allure of the Swiss Alps was too much (allow me at least one joke, I know we are talking serious business here). So he talked with Trump, Witkoff talked with Putin and now Russian, Ukrainian and American delegations are talking in Abu Dhabi. The talks will continue this week.
Comment: there is a path towards peace, although a lot still needs to happen. I see I need to do a Ukraine conflict deep dive soon.
Sebastian Lecornu said he would force the French budget through parliament without a vote. He faced 2 no confidence votes and prevailed, saving the French budget for now.
Comment: we will have a repeat this year, but the important event is the 2027 presidential election. And I assume the second part of the year will be extremely interesting in the French politics.
The president of Bulgaria, Rumen Radev, said he would resign from office. The announcement comes as the country had 7 parliamentary elections in the last 4 years. Radev served the mostly presidential role for 9 years and is expected to form his own party now. He is a known eurosceptic.
Comment: another European election to track. 2026 is looking awesome from prediction markets perspective.
Britain gave a go-ahead to Chinese plans to build a large embassy complex in London after years of delays. Critics say that the size and proximity to London’s financial center can facilitate spying.
Comment: and the critics are right, what a disgrace. Either the elites are clueless or complicit.
Business, Finance & Economics
There was nothing especially groundbreaking in finance this week, but a few interesting developments for the future happened anyway.
Micron, an American memory chip developer, said it would buy a Taiwanese plant for $1.8 billion to help meet rising global demand. AI data centers squeeze the supply for these chips.
Comment: hardware for me but not for thee. The fight for resources continue in the AI race, after graphic cards it is mamory-chips and pretty soon it will be electricity.
Czechoslovak Group, a Czech arms maker, raised $3.8 billion in its IPO on Friday in the largest defense IPO ever.
Comment: European defense industry grows and is looking for financing wherever it can. Rheinmetall was pitched as a good investment here a while ago already.
Blue Origin is looking to compete with Starlink as it plans to launch a satellite-internet service. Initial launch is planned for 5,408 satellites in late 2027. Bezos is looking to target business clients, data centers and governments.
Comment: good targeting from Bezos, these government contracts are too good to miss.
ByteDance x US deal is done and the new joint venture can operate in the US.
Comment: the fake deal is done and now we can finally forget about the topic.
Wrap up
So stay strong and see you soon!