Global Outlook: Can You Stop A Crazy Man?

Hi, it’s PROPHET here. You may know me from my X activity as well as PROPHET NOTES newsletter. But if you don’t, I’m a full time Polymarket trader on geopolitical, political and economic markets with 169% returns this year alone! Starting today I’m collaborating with Adjacent to give you some insight into global events and how I’m analyzing them.

From now on you will see my weekly outlooks, summarizing key global events from prediction markets perspective as well as some of my deep dives into specific issues and markets. Let’s get right into it.

I remember when I was saying that the Trump victory in the US election will mean a golden age for prediction markets. I didn’t even suspect how right I would be back then. The sheer amount of global developments I report in this weekly is probably double the number I had in 2024.

With Biden it was slow, only on thing at a time. With Trump it’s everything, everywhere, all at once. That hardly means that anything actually gets done. But it surely is busy.

Weekly Outlook

This week was filled with the usual mix of war and tariff news, sprinkled by mentions of a golden dome. On top of that it seems that we got ourselves the week of assassins as well as the first announcement of total surveillance in disguise.

US Inc.

With Trump everything is golden, big and beautiful. Cards, domes and bills, even the usual budget ones. This one was just passed in House of Representatives, allowing trump to progress with his planned tax cuts and reduced spending on the social safety net. It is projected to add $3 trillion to the federal debt (overall, not next year). Bonds reacted accordingly and seemingly there is nothing the administration can do to lower the yields.

Staying with things that are golden, now Trump wants to build a golden dome before the end of his term. The project is supposed to cost ca. $175 billion with $25 billion included in the passed budget. The dome is a missile defense system.

Coming back to deficit, In the face of all the planned tax cuts and cost increases, Elon Musk seemingly threw in the towel and announced that he would cut back on political spending. After already partly removing himself from the administration to focus on his companies, this next step shows that Elon is probably losing faith in introducing sustainable cuts to the budget. Shame.

Staying for one more bit in the domestic affairs, Trump’s fight against all kinds of DEI continues, this time on the higher education front. The administration blocked Harvard University from enrolling foreign students. This comes after Trump had already tried to block the university from having a tax-exempt status. In the usual now course of action a judge in Boston temporarily blocked the attempt.

Going international, there was an unusual moment in the Oval Office, when Trump showed Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa’s president, a video trying to prove claims of white genocide in the country. The moved came after US Inc. welcomed 60 Afrikaners as refugees. You’ll see shortly what was the purpose of these moves.

And lastly, the defense department accepted a Boeing 747 as a gift from Qatar. For me it was a given since last week, Trump wouldn’t be Trump if he didn’t accept such gift.

The Americas

This week we have news from the Americas, although bad ones. Gunmen killed two members of the mayor of Mexico City’s staff. The motive is unclear for now and I’m not that into Mexican politics to speculate. However, I hear that such actions are pretty common, although not in the capital. Will watch out if we ever learn more about the situation.

Middle East & Africa

If it isn’t my “favorite” region… Starting with Israel and Gaza. After the botched ceasefire negotiation, Israel is moving forward with the operation Gideon’s Chariots, aiming to take total control over the Gaza strip. The western countries are supposedly “outraged” at the situation, but for now the only thing they actually did is that Britain suspended some trade talks with Israel and with Canada and France, they threatened sanctions on Israel.

It definitely feels more like a move to satisfy domestic public opinion, rather than to put real pressure on Israel. Additionally, the White House has been quiet on the issue, indicating that they are good with it. Look at what Trump said on Sunday:

Notice the wording. He told Netanyahu to “wrap it up” and that he wants to stop the war. It doesn’t necessarily mean a ceasefire. It might mean finishing up the war and taking over Gaza quickly. And the lack of apparent pressure on Israel points me to that fact on top of my original thesis. Just take a look here:

Based on Adjacent Press charting (which I surely recommend as you can do your own charts there!), No chances across all major markets are trending upwards with traders getting more and more used to the idea of no ceasefire.

Oh and first aid trucks, 90 to be precise, entered Gaza last week. UN warns that it’s not enough, but I have a suspicion that in some time with more trucks coming in, the voices around humanitarian action will have way less force.

Last news around Israel, and another one on assassinations, two staff from the Israeli embassy in Washington were shot dead outside a museum in the American capital. The suspected gunman reportedly shouted “Free Palestine” after being detained.

Coming to Iran and the nuclear deal, Abbas Araqchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said that the talks are on the reasonable path after the latest, fifth round. American side confirmed that discussions were constructive. There is still a hurdle of uranium enrichment and traders are worried about the lack of progress:

However, the aggregated deal likelihood index from Adjacent is mostly flat at 69.2%:

Looking at the Adjacent market aggregate, I think it’s safe to say that the spike in deal odds in the singular markets was mostly an overreaction to talks that were always considered to be difficult. I’m still on the Yes side on the deal market and my thesis remains stable.

I promised you to get back to the case of South Africa and here we are. After all the events, it is now reported that there is a new draft of the affirmative-action law there that changes the requirement for foreign investors to sell 30% of their local entities to historically disadvantaged groups. In the new draft firms could instead commit to creating jobs or financing small businesses.

This coincides with Starlink’s unwillingness to comply with original law. Well, we can expect Starlink to be available in South Africa soon.

Europe

Time for the usual update on the Ukraine war. On Monday Trump talked with Putin and while he claimed that the conversation went very well, there is little progress in terms of a ceasefire. To not appear weak, Britain and the EU imposed new sanctions on Russia, in line with their threat that they made two weeks ago.

Putin seem unimpressed though as Russia performed its biggest drone and missile strike on Kyiv and other cities that overwhelmed Ukraine’s defense systems. At least 14 people were killed and dozens injured in a second consecutive night of attacks. Zelensky accused Putin of prolonging the war (don’t want to sound ironic, but that’s not exactly great accusation to make against a nuclear power).

Trump for some reason wanted some part of this spotlight around the attacks and called Putin absolutely crazy, just a week after the conversation that supposedly went very well. To soften the message he scolded Zelensky saying that everything out of Zelensky’s mouth causes problems. With all that combined, most of the traders are starting to agree with my thesis from December and the odds reflect that:

Moving next, in Europe we had the third assassination of the week, this time of Andriy Portnov, a former aide to Viktor Yanukovich, in Madrid. He was shot by multiple attackers in the head and back. No one was caught yet. Luckily that’s the last one in the series (this week).

Moving to better news, the presidential campaign in Poland is in the maximum heat. With only a week left till the second round, both candidates are scrambling to gain as much voters as they can. Check out who will win, on Prophet Notes, Polish Election: I Bet More On The Ultimate Showdown.

On the western side of Europe, under the ever-present Russian threat, Britain and the EU are no canceling part of the Brexit. They are resetting the post-Brexit relations and renegotiating key trade, mobility and arms procurement agreements.

Lastly, probably inspired by Trump, France has announced that it will build a high-security prison in French Guiana. The facility costing $450 million will be located in Saint-Laurent-du-Maroni (near the former French penal colony on the Devil’s Island) and will be destined for drug traffickers and radical Islamists.

Business, Finance & Economics

This week was ripe with AI announcement. Anthropic has released their next model - Claude 4. There was quite some controversy around it as it was revealed that it has capabilities to report you to authorities and block you from working on projects it deems unethical or dangerous. The capability is for now not implemented, but it’s surely a sign of things to come.

Especially since we also learned that OpenAI partnered with Jony Ive (famed iPhone designer) to release ChatGPT in hardware form. The device will have no screen, but will have a constantly working microphone and camera. Most people were thrilled… and it amazes me how easily people can willingly accept 24/7 surveillance. I guess they will wake up when it’s too late.

Don’t get me wrong - AI can be of great help with research. But you shouldn’t be overly dependent on any tool. Especially the one that can know so much about you and have autonomy to perform actions.

Oh and I’m sure that being for profit would help Sam Altman, especially since I heard that they are projecting massive sales of the device:

Meanwhile in finance the situation looks pretty bleak. Jaan’s core inflation rose to 3.5% in April, leaving BOJ in a bit of a pickle - rise rates to curb inflation and possibly cause a global recession (looking at you Michael Gayed) or hold it stead and also possibly risk a global recession…

Staying on the Japan-US topic, surprisingly Trump approved a partnership between US Steel and Nippon Steel. Under the deal, US Steel will remain in Pennsylvania and create jobs, adding $14 billion to American economy. This is the same deal that was blocked by Biden (or an autopen?) in January over threats to national security.

Tariffs

And now my least favorite topic. I’m definitely not a fan of mercantilist Trump and his announcement of 50% tariffs on Europe starting June 1st was surely surprising, especially considering the 90-days pause. But shortly after (and even less shortly after the yields rose) Trump has backed down and delayed the tariffs to July 9th. The talks are supposed to start soon with rumors circulating that increased EU tariffs on China might placate Trump.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today. This week I will be watching the Polish presidential campaign very closely. Bar some major scandal (no, Nawrocki having some connections to hotel prostitutes in his twenties is not huge, it was know already a few months ago) my mind is set.

Stay strong and we will see each other soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.