Donald Trump has shocked the world the MAGA base when he said on Saturday that Epstein is “somebody that nobody cares about”. X was full of different opinions on the topic. You will need to wait for mine just a couple of days as I’m writing an article on it.

Otherwise it’s been a pretty quiet week in the world despite big promises. Or maybe it’s just my perception after an extremely eventful June. Anyway, click that subscribe button and see the world as it is and will be.

Weekly Outlook

Well, I did forget to mention one big development. Mr TACO offered us a barrage of new commentary on the trade war, but I will come to that later. For now let’s tackle it step by step.

US Inc.

Outside of tariffs, the big news was around the cuts to the federal workforce. The administration didn’t take long to take action - 1,300 employees were already laid off. Expectations are that this is only the beginning.

The Americas

Nothing to report in the South America. Sometimes it just be like that.

Asia

In the meantime, the news in Asia circled around both Koreas. On the southern side the authorities re-arrested Yoon Suk Yeol, the infamous ex-president that was ousted over his failed coup attempt. The arrest warrant was approved based on the fear that he can destroy evidence in his other criminal trials. They just won’t let him go easily.

On the northern side, Kim Jong Un hosted Lavrov in Wonsan, a costal city. After the talks, North Korea is expected to send at least 25,000 more troops to the Ukrainian meat grinder. Russia is surely happy, but with drones being ever-present on the front line, I have my doubts that additional cannon-fodder will make much of a difference.

Middle East & Africa

The Middle East is all about the Gaza ceasefire now. Netanyahu visited Trump in the White House for the whole week, with some hoping that both leaders planned this to announce the long awaited ceasefire. However, the talks proved to be much more difficult with some reports now saying that they are on the verge of collapse.

Even after Hamas announced that they are ready to release 10 living hostages as part of the deal, the disagreement around aid and permanent IDF withdrawal is something that neither party is ready to compromise on. Even Witkoff’s talks with Qataris during the FIFA Cup was not enough to move the needle for the time being.

That being said, it didn’t stop Netanyahu to officially nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. I guess that Obama’s Prize must burn a deep hole in Trump’s ego.

When it comes to aid, the EU struck a deal with Israel to expand humanitarian aid to Gaza. The deal involves a substantial increase (however unspecified, which casts a shadow of doubt on the whole engagement) in the number of food trucks entering the strip. I personally consider it irrelevant in the context of the ceasefire.

Moving to Iran, both Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, as well as Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister, confirmed that Iran is ready. to resume the nuclear talks with the US. However Iran still wants to retain the ability to enrich uranium. And this statement comes despite the president saying during Tucker Carlson interview that Israel tried to assassinate him. Considering the above, I’m bearish on the deal coming through anytime soon.

Moving outside of the hot conflict zone, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party in Turkey and Iraq began handing over its weapons marking the start of its pre-agreed disarmament. After decades of fighting and over 40,000 lives lost, this one conflict in the Middle East is finally coming to an end.

Lastly, the least important news. The International Criminal Court, an institution that currently has zero credibility or sway, issued arrest warrants for two (sic!) leaders of the Taliban ruling Afghanistan. It charged them with persecuting women and girls. They must be really trembling now lol.

Europe

Trump loves the spotlight, but TACOs when it comes to walking the talk. The much promised big announcement on Ukraine involved sending over 17 Patriots and threatening Russia with 100% tariff if ceasefire is not reached soon. Last I checked the US was not really trading with Russia, but whatever I guess. This came after Trump criticized Putin for throwing bullshit at him.

In the meantime in Russia, Roman Starovoit, a former transport minister, died from a gunshot wound. Russian authorities deemed it a suicide. This comes after Putin fired him on Monday, but he used to oversee the Kursk region so we can deduce it by ourselves, right?

Moving outside of Ukraine, Macron pledged to raise military spending by €6.5b ($7.6b) over the next 2 years. This comes after NATO pledged to increase its military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Additionally, he struck a deal with New Caledonia, an overseas territory, where anti-colonial unrest took place last year. The nickel-rich Pacific islands will remain French, but will be a new state within the Republic. Both French parliament and New Caledonia need to approve the deal now.

Lastly, our favorite Ursula von der Leyen survived a no confidence vote that was put forward by the right wing side of the European parliament. No shocker, the motion lacked 182 votes, but von der Leyen experienced some stress beforehand as liberal and socialist MEPs threatened to abstain at some point.

Business, Finance & Economics

Nvidia reached $4t market cap as the first public company ever. With AI, demand for GPUs is booming and Jensen made sure to capitalize on it. Next milestone - $5t.

On X, Linda Yaccarino said she would step down as the CEO of the platform. However, the comments from Elon rather indicate that she was fired. Additionally with stepping down, a clear transition process would have followed the announcement. In the meantime, the CEO situation is unclear. I only wonder what was the cause.

Lastly, the Portuguese government is putting its 49.9% stake in TAP, the airline, up for sale. After bailing out the airline after COVID pandemic losses, the time came to once again let it go private, especially since it turned profit for the first time in 5 years. Supposedly Air France-KLM, IAG, and Lufthansa are interested.

Tariffs

Coming to the big news of the week, Trump once again TACO’ed and delayed the implementation of tariffs to the 1st of August. But to appease his ego, he announced that if no deal is struck, severl countries will be hit with even higher tariffs:

• South Korea, Japan, South Africa, others: 25%,
• Brazil: 50%,
• Canada: 35%,
• EU: 30%.

Additionally he threatened 50% tariffs on copper, which ripped 13% after announcement and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals.

For now the EU doesn’t threaten retaliation, but it is preparing countermeasures if negotiations fail.

Lastly in the tariff department, the revenue from them in this fiscal year (last 9 months) hit $100 billion, marking an all-time record. However, it is hardly enough to cover the deficit.

Adjacent tariff index is fairly stable on the matter, but trending slightly upwards - end of TACO?

Wrap up

And that’s all for the week. My article on Epstein and his effect on Trump is coming in a couple of days.

In the meantime stay strong and see you soon!