Welcome to the new week! Everyone’s seemingly on the edge of their seats when it comes to Iran and the Middle East in general. While they do that, I’m done for now with Iran, having published the second update to my thesis and tomorrow I’m planning to play some SOTU markets.

I’ll be watching it to catch some clues about Trump’s thinking and depending on what will be said, I might do a commentary video on it! Stay tuned, and in the meantime see the world for yourself.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

It was a defining week for Trump presidency and some of the developments continue this week.

SCOTUS ruled that IEEPA tariffs (the blanket ones) are in fact unconstitutional, cancelling them and opening path towards refunds. However, shortly after the decision, Trump proceeded to set new blanket tariffs of 10% under Section 122, only to increase them to 15% less than 24 hours later.

Comment: the tariff ruling was expected and it is clear that the Trump administration was ready with a solution. What is a bit shocking is that SCOTUS left the door wide open for refunds and rumors are that the first lawsuits from companies are in. Trump is in a bit of a pickle now, since voters will be extremely angry they paid the tariffs and now the companies are getting refunds.

Secret Service shot dead Austin Tucker Martin, a 21 years old male, carrying a shotgun and fuel as he breached Mar-a-Lago. Trump was not there at the time.

Comment: people are struggling, the political division is at all time highs so sadly we can expect such events to happen.

Britain’s energy secretary Ed Miliband and Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, signed a clean energy partnership promising to share technology and attract joint investment. Octopus Energy, a British green power group, pledged to invest $1 billion in Californian renewables.

Comment: seems like Gavin Newsom is testing the waters for his presidential campaign.

Trump directed the US government should release most files on aliens and UAPs. This comes after Obama claimed that aliens are real during an interview, however he later clarified that this is only his personal opinion, rather than something he saw as the US president.

Comment: while many people are hopeful, I don’t believe we will see an definitive proof of non human intelligence in these files.

The Americas

Wherever Trump turns his attention, the region explodes with developments shortly after. Americas are no different - once scarcely mentioned in the Global Outlook, now they are a premiere feature of this weekly article.

The US carried out 2 strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats in the eastern Pacific + one more in the Caribbean, killing 11 people.

Comment: I don’t see these strikes as either a solution or something that has outsized impact on drugs coming to the US. I think they are done mostly for narrative purposes at this point + to deter anyone who would think of resuming shipments through this route.

Mexican army killed El Mencho, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. It is know as the most violent cartel in Mexico. The death resulted from a shooting between the army and the cartel, during an operation that aimed to capture the leader.

Comment: chaos ensued as the most violent gang is looking for revenge. I see this as a major escalation, I do believe the US had something to do with the operation, and now the market in US involvement is extremely volatile:

Greenland declined Trump’s offer to send an American hospital boat with medical supplies after Trump made a post on Truth Social claiming that Greenlanders are not being taken care of.

Comment: I would classify it as rambling.

Another Conservative MP defected to the Liberals in Canada, making it likely that we will see a Liberal majority in the parliament.

Comment: we have 3 upcoming elections that if won by Liberals, will allow them to have the majority without snap elections. Exciting!

Asia

After shocking elections results, it was a fairly quiet week in Asia.

India signed a deal with Brazil on rare earths, hoping to lessen the reliance on China. Brazil has a quarter of known rare earths reserves globally.

Comment: it’s a blow to China surely, especially coming from Brazil, which very recently was leaning towards China vs the US. Trump effect?

Yoon Suk Yeol, the ex-president of South Korea who led the failed insurrection was sentenced to life in prison.

Comment: prosecutors wanted the death penalty, but if you ask me, I’m not sure what is worse.

Middle East & Africa

I don’t need to tell you that it was a tense week in the Middle East.

The US and Iran held the second round of talks in Geneva, during which they agreed on the scope of the agreement. Today, Iran is submitting its draft of the agreement, but there is no news on the proposal from the US side. Regardless, both countries will meet again on Thursday in Geneva.

Comment: I’ve written extensively on the topic, to the point that I’m not planning any more updates at this point. In the last one I laid out my full thesis, based on the full month of researching the current situation.

Armed forces loyal to Sudan’s government said they had repelled an attack by the RSF on El Tina, a town on the border of Chad, which the militia had earlier claimed to have captured.

Comment: I don’t have much to say about this conflict other than that it is a proxy conflict and the US should step in here and resolve the dispute between KSA and UAE.

Europe

I wouldn’t say it was a big week in Europe, but something has happened for sure.

The same day US-Iran talks happened in Geneva, US-Russia-Ukraine talks also took place, also in Geneva. And reports from them are rather bleak - Zelensky was even quoted saying that the talks have collapsed and the country needs to be ready for another 3 years of war. But ultimately, more talks are in plans.

Comment: Trump will really push this topic and we can expect a culmination point somewhere around June, after which we will either get a ceasefire or a total exit bby the US.

Speaking of Ukraine, it accused Hungary and Slovakia of blackmail. The two countries threatened to cut off supplies of electricity in response to Ukraine’s failure to resume transporting Russian oil to them.

Comment: just political games… especially on the eve of war anniversary and incoming Hungary election.

The European Commission is looking to delay the ratification of the trade agreement with the US, due to Trump’s new 15% tariffs.

Comment: every occasion is good to discredit Trump in the midterms year, Europe will do what it can to stop Trump from fully implementing his agenda.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, the ex-prince, was arrested by police in Britain on suspicion of misconduct in public office. It appears that he shared sensitive details with Epstein when he was a British trade envoy.

Comment: the sacrificial lamb.

Business, Finance & Economics

Lastly, some interesting news from the entertainment industry, coupled with an update on mining.

BHP, the world’s biggest mining company by market cap, reported stronger than expected half-year results driven by increased demand for copper.

Comment: copper is crucial for energy infra that needs to be upgraded and expanded in pretty much every major developed country.

Warner Bros. is restarting talks with Paramount after the company has sweetened the offer several times. Now Netflix needs to up their bid.

Comment: and now the real (business) war starts. This is a fight for entertainment industry dominance and both companies have plenty of cash to spare. Things should get really interesting here.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. I’m still mulling the next deep dive topic, but I’m looking to play some SOTU markets tomorrow so you can expect a small update from me in that regard.

In the meantime stay strong and see you soon!