Welcome to another week! Outside of Ukraine news and Venezuelan escalations it was a fairly quiet one as Americans were celebrating Thanksgiving. Today I’m trying out a new format where I put out expanded headlines with links and then provide a short forward-looking comment on them. Let me know how you like the new style.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The main news in the US this week was the shooting of the two members of the West Virginia National Guard near the White House. Trump described the actions of the Afghan shooter as an act of terror. One of the National Guard member died. The Afghan in question was identified as Rahmanullah Lakanwal, a former CIA operative in Afghanistan. Trump administration decided to pause all asylum decision and stopped issuing visas to Afghans following the shooting.

Comment: this is yet another iteration of the societal unrest in America, where MAGA clashes with woke. While the Afghan himself might have been furious with how the US handled the exit from his country, the ultimate reaction will be to increase pressure on migration and deploy more National Guard. Result - even more increased tensions.

Trump said he would pardon a former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernandez. He was convicted last year of conspiring to import cocaine into America.

Comment: with the focus on the western hemisphere amid the rebirth of the Monroe Doctrine 2.0, Trump is making sure the US has control over the whole North and South America. It’s not only Venezuela - it’s Argentina with the swap line, it’s Brazil with increased tariffs and now it’s Honduras with presidential elections that the US is trying to influence (seems they were successful). More will come.

The Americas

After Venezuela banned 6 airlines from its airports accusing them of state terrorism, Trump announced a complete closure of Venezuelan airspace. The message was also addressed to drug dealers and human traffickers. In response Venezuela described it as a colonialist threat.

Comment: we are moving up the escalation ladder in a steady pace. The pressure is mounting and we are one step closer to reaching the critical point. If you want my deeper thoughts on the topic of Venezuela, look here.

Jair Bolsonaro began his 27-year jail sentence for plotting a coup in Brazil. He exhausted his appeal options in the case about his actions after the 2022 election.

Comment: the case was aimed for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to solidify power and prevent Bolsonaro and the general right-wing from ever winning again. But the context here is deeper, as Silva is willing and looking to cooperate with team east, while Bolsonaro is one of Trump’s favorites. Expect the imprisonment to have consequences in the not so distant future. Once Trump is done with Venezuela, he will surely look at Brazil and next year’s election looks like a prime target.

Canada announced a deal with the province of Alberta to build a 1,100 km pipeline connecting northern oil-producing regions with the Pacific.

Comment: I’ll keep it short here - they might build the pipeline, but there is no scenario under which Canada will be exporting oil to China freely. It will sooner become a 51st state.

Asia

Taiwan is increasing its defense spending by additional $40 billion. Lai Ching-te said China had increased military drills and other actions against the island. Taiwan itself is concerned over America’s commitment to its protection and pledged to increase the defense budget to 5% of GDP by 2030.

Comments: there is no world in which Taiwan successfully defends itself against a Chinese aggression. Japan alone won’t help either. For now the threat of US engagement is enough to deter China, that has better things to do, but once the semiconductor industry moves back to the US (and Japan), the US won’t care as much about the island. But at that point it might just be slowly integrated vs attacked.

Vanke, a Chinese state backed developer said it would ask for bondholders’ approval to delay paying the principal on a 2 billion yuan ($238 million) note due next month.

Comment: China’s housing crisis is a well-known issue. However, I expect the government to step in when necessary and avoid a wider systemic crisis.

Middle East & Africa

Guinea-Bissau experienced a coup between the elections and the official results. The incumbent president Umaro Sissoco Embalówas arrested as army took control of the country. Major General Horta Inta-a became the country’s interim president. He explained his forces stepped in to ave the country’s democracy from a plot by “narco-traffickers”. His government is planning to be in place for a year.

Comment: this is yet another military coup in the region. As I keep saying, expect Africa to be much more volatile as powers fight for resources that are plentiful in the region.

Media in Syria claimed that 13 people, including 2 children, were killed in an Israeli raid on a village in the south. The IDF said that the raid targeted members of Jama’a Islamiya, a Lebanese Islamist group.

Comment: Israel will continue to maintain a strong posture in the region, however at the moment it is unable to conduct any extensive military operation as the US is no longer able to give the necessary support. But with its neighbors weak, it should create any kind of regional threat in the foreseeable future.

Netanyahu requested a pardon for corruption charges from Israeli president. His argument (besides maintaining innocency) is that the long running trial deepens rifts in the society. The president will consider the request.

Comment: Netanyahu will not go to jail for an extended time as he will be protected.

Europe

American army secretary Dan Driscoll held talks with Russians in Abu Dhabi. There were talks in Geneva. The Ukrainian delegation met with Rubio x Witkoff x Kushner in Florida. And Witkoff is going to Moscow this week. All. to push forward a peace proposal to. end the war in Ukraine.

Yermak, Zelensky’s chief of staff, resigned last week as the corruption scandal reached him. He is reportedly getting ready to fight on the frontlines now.

Comment: I wrote an article yesterday showing what is actually going on and where it is heading. Read it here.

Moldova said that Russian drones entered its airspace on Saturday. It’s the third time in jut over a week. In the meantime Ukraine destroyed two Russian tankers from so called shadow fleet (which sounds very dramatic, but it just means that the ships lack western insurance and are owned outside of the G7 or EU jurisdiction - details at the end of page 3).

Comment: the war is going on and various operations in Europe are being conducted as an acts of hybrid warfare. At the same time, Ukraine attacking the shadow fleet is another escalation that will prompt Russia to escalate on their own. And so the cycle continues.

Putin met with Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, in Moscow. Putin thanked him for offering to host Russian-American summit while Orban hoped to secure energy supplies for winter.

Comment: Orban is looking to secure cheap energy ahead of a winter that is forecasted to be harsh. There is an election in Hungary next year, Orban is looking at a fierce campaign to remain in power and cheap energy prices might just help with that. Other things were of course discussed as Orban’s foreign policy is a one looking to balance Russia and Europe.

Police in France detained 3 people suspected of spying for Russia.

Comment: as above, hybrid warfare is up.

Macron announced plans for a voluntary military service for young people, aiming to recruit 10,000 volunteers by 2030. The parliament will have the power to make the service obligatory in a moment of major crisis.

Comment: as the US is losing interest in financing the Ukrainian war and Ukraine is short on new recruits, European countries are slowly getting their societies ready to carry more war burden, including potential boots on the ground.

Reeves announced tax rises in Britain worth £26 billion ($34.3 billion) over the next 5 years. They include a freeze on income-tax threshold and a levy on homes worth over £2 million.

Comment: it’s the middle class who pays for all the follies in the end.

Business, Finance & Economics

OPEC said they would maintain oil output in the Q1 2026. They also agreed on a new framework for assessing how much oil can they produce.

Comment: I may have said something about this in my yesterday’s Ukraine deep dive.

Airbus announced that around 6,000 A320 short and medium-haul planes were affected with a software bug. Flights were grounded as the issue was fairly swiftly resolved.

Comment: show us how dependent we are on single points of failure, not only in pure software (eg. AWS), but also in avionics.

Rapidus will build a new semiconductor plant in Hokkaido that will produce 1.4 nm transistors from 2029. Japanese government will fund majority of the projects.

Comment: Taiwan is slowly, but surely waving goodbye to its semiconductors dominance.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. Next up is a video on the Venezuelan market.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.