Compared to previous week, a little bit dull. Of course, we don’t lack new developments, be it in America or around the world, but it’s nothing like the 12-day war.

Regardless, I still have almost 2k words of news to analyze and summarize for you so it’s hardly peaceful. Hit that subscribe button below and see the world.

Weekly Outlook

I guess the two main pieces of news this week were Elon making his own political party and Gaza looking at another possible ceasefire. My take on the latter here.

But before we go into the nitty gritty details of the world, I feel I need to comment on the recent Polymarket drama. There is a >$160m market now on wether Zelensky will wear a suit by July. A massive dispute is going on about this specific outfit:

Is this a suit? Well, it depends. A very technical definition of a suit, being a two piece clothing made out of the same fabric, is met. However the market was about the wider context of Zelensky not fitting in with other world leaders wearing an actual business suit.

The market was supposed to be based on the consensus of credible reporting, but there was none as several sources differed in interpretation of the outfit being an actual suit. Additionally the jacket creator said that it is a suit.

However, the context and the market precedence is against the Yes resolution. The obvious fact here is that the rules should have defined what constitutes a suit. They failed to do it and now we have a situation.

That’s why I always say “read the rules”, because you can easily avoid being embroiled into such dramas if you see the rules are ambiguous. Stay safe on this and other markets and watch out for the whales - if they are bonding ie. buying in size at 90c+, they usually know what they are doing.

US Inc.

The Big Beautiful Bill, the BBB, passed. S&P has an easy job now (lol) rating the US. But the real consequence is quite severe. Trump has his win with this awful bill that, besides other things like limiting Medicare, makes professional gambling in the US unsustainable. But on the other hand he now has a big problem - Elon is creating a new party.

The America Party, as it is dubbed, is supposed to focus on a few Senate and House races to be the deciding vote in future bill confirmations. Easy? Not really. In Poland we had 4 such ideas and parties in the last 10 years and all of them ended up being eaten up by the very parties they were competing against. Elon is up for a tough ride.

But for now Trump is focused on the Middle East. Last week he announced that he would lift sanctions on Syria. An expected move considering his meeting a month back.

And once again moving to domestic, a federal court acquitted Diddy of racketeering and sex-trafficking, but convicted him on prostitution-related charges to much of a dissatisfaction of common people. He can face up to 20 years in prison, but his sentencing is months away and traders are dubious of a significant sentence:

Lastly, there was a flash flood in Texas, near San Antonio. At least 82 people were killed and dozens more are still missing. Many are girls from the christian summer camp. Trump is expected to visit Texas in the coming days.

The Americas

Only a quasi-LatAm news, but BRICS has its summit in Rio de Janeiro. Putin and Xi were missing, but will speak remotely. Despite some reporting, BRICS is mostly a nothingburger, so I’m not paying that much of an attention to this meeting.

Asia

Amid the trade wars around the world, China said it would stop procuring some medical devices from Europe. This comes along the message from China to the EU that for China, Russian must be victorious in Ukraine. I’m not in the mood to hate on the EU now, as I did it already, pretty extensively.

I’m moving out anyway, so all I can say is good luck europoors…

Middle East & Africa

So the news of the week here is the potential ceasefire in Gaza. Trump announced that Israel has agreed to a framework, then Hamas responded in its usual way of “yes, but…” and now both parties are talking in Qatar.

My take on this is in the article linked above.

In the meantime Israel is busy not only in Gaza, but also in Yemen, where it struck three ports and a power plant. War is war.

However, on the Iranian soil we had a revelation. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has resurfaced and appeared in public for the first time since the 12-day war. After suspending the cooperation with the UN’s nuclear watchdog he was seen attending a Shia religious ceremony.

Lastly on the region, Russia became the first country to formally recognize the Taliban government in Afghanistan. Russia said it would work with it on trade, energy and fighting “threats of terrorism”.

Europe

As usual starting with the war in Ukraine, the US said it will pause some weapons shipment to Ukraine over fears they are running low. That was obviously untrue as it was quickly proved that most of the weapons are no longer in use for the US military. Seems like the US is balancing the conflict for now, considering major losses for Iran, one of the main Russian suppliers.

However, Trump did talk with both Putin and Zelensky, and the former cal went badly while the latter was supposedly terrific so we can see some reversal in the near future. Other than that, we are in the same spot as previously.

That being said, the Russian military offensive Adjacent index remains steady:

Lastly on Europe, there is now a lot of political drama in Poland. Once Nawrocki, backed by the opposition, won the presidential election, the current government can’t relly get back up. The reconstruction is still at work while some coalition leaders are meeting with the opposition. Additionally the EU migrant crisis is finally making its way to Poland, further compromising current government’s position. We are in for an interesting summer and fall in Polish politics.

Business, Finance & Economics

Moving to economy, Trump is still trying to convince Powell to lower rates. However, the Fed chair remain unmoved and the next meeting look increasingly like no cut:

In Germany though, inflation slowed to 2% in June, matching the ECB target rate. However, contrary to the Fed, the ECB after a series of cuts is starting to communicate that it will end the cutting cycle.

Tariffs

When it comes to tariffs we had another shocker. And it’s hardly about the Vietnam deal in which the US will impose 20% tariffs on Vietnamese products and 40% on products shipped via Vietnam while American companies will enjoy 0% tariff on goods shipped there.

It’s about the tariff term moving from the 9th of July to the 1st of August. TACO it is after all… But thanks to that the EU is hopeful to reach a deal in time. Adjacent chart is aligned with this thesis.

Lastly, Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on countries aligned with the BRICS.

Wrap up

That’s all for today!

When it comes to next articles, follow me on X and see for yourself. Stay strong and see you soon!