I had this girlfriend some time ago, back in my early college days. It was all fun in the beginning, but at some point she began having these tantrums where she was completely hysterical and irrational. They didn’t last long and always ended in her apologizing to me. Whatever good intentions were there, they were trumped by these constant swings though.

I got reminded of her when I saw Musk vs Trump drama on X last week. Unhinged, childish behavior. I think Elon missed politics 101 where they explain how to influence decision making process. And Trump was his classic self, but I bet that behind closed doors, he is more cunning in gaining support he needs.

Anyway, the kids took the spotlight, but the world moves on all the same.

Weekly Outlook

Almost six months in and I think I developed immunity to all the chaos. It’s hardly shocking now, just another day in the paradise.

US Inc.

All the people that proclaimed that NATO is dead must be pretty silent now. Pete Hegseth speaking at a meeting of NATO defense ministers did some harsh pep talk and said that US Inc. expects that members will agree to spend 5% of GDP on defense with 3.5% going on hard-military programs and 1.5% on related infrastructure.

Last I checked only US Inc. and Poland were at or above 5%. With military industry that is not developed in Europe, I believe that this move is not only related to Europe needing to defend itself, but also to the fact that the US wants to cancel out some of the trade deficit by exporting military equipment. Business is business.

Domestically it was a tough week in the US. Elon Musk went on a bender and accused Trump of all kinds of things, with being on the Epstein list taking the top spot (now the tweet is deleted). All because he felt hurt that Trump endorsed the big beautiful bill that expands the deficit.

I feel for the guy - he worked to lower the deficit and this bill was like a slap to the face (doubled by Bessent punch). But he should have been smarter than that. Being overly dependent on government subsidies, it was not a wise move. Also he spent a few month in the White House - he should have made some friends and expanded his soft influence. Obviously he failed to do this and managed to completely burn his political capital in the process. The bromance will be missed and the deficit will expand, eventually to be softened by inflation as it always is…

Continuing on the unstable domestic situation in the US, there are now riots in LA. After a couple of immigration raids the protests erupted. The situation now is pretty unstable - while Newsom is insisting that the situation is under control, Trump has sent the National Guard to help with the riots. It’s pride month after all, a summer of love!

Lastly, Trump banned citizens from 12 countries from entering America, mostly poor African and Asian countries. He imposed additional restrictions on seven other countries, including Cuba and Venezuela. All to protect Americans from terrorist attacks, supposedly. Additionally, he ordered a probe into whether Biden’s staff conspired to deceive the public about the former president’s mental state. Spoiler alert: Yes.

The Americas

Seems like each time I feature LatAm in this article, it’s about killing. This time Miguel Uribe, a presidential contender in Colombia, was shot in Bogota. He is still fighting for his life. He was shot at a campaign event. He is a member of the current opposition.

Asia

After interesting 6 months, Soth Korea has a new president. Lee Jae-myung of the liberal Democratic Party won, despite hanging corruption allegations. Hardly a shocker, this time Polymarket traders delivered:

In a rare appearance, Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai, Mongolia’s prime minister, resigned after losing a confidence vote in parliament. After weeks of protests over corruption allegations, the deed is done and a successor will be named within 30 days.

Middle East & Africa

There is some drama around Gaza aid with both sides accusing each other, but I’m not in the mood to analyze that - it’s pointless anyway. There won’t be a ceasefire in the near future. There are actually higher chances of a capitulation to be honest.

There were some strongly worded statements from different countries on Israel. But these are pressure only if you have pronouns in your bio:

In the meantime Iran is busy. Not only did they reject the US proposal to submit their own, but also they had stolen quite a bit of sensitive state docs from Israel, including material related to nuclear facilities. For now I took my profits from Iran-US nuclear deal market, more updates to come in the upcoming article on the matter.

Europe

Moving to Europe, Ukraine war is still in the deep. After the Spider’s Web operation, Ukraine’s security service struck the Kerch bridge connecting Russia to Crimea. The success was though overshadowed by Russian forces advance towards Sumy. Now the city is range of Russian drones and artillery.

All this happens while the peace talks collapse. Putin said he didn’t want to negotiate with terrorists and even the prisoner exchange was delayed. Europe better step up their military industry fast, because Trump will neither sanction nor support Ukraine in any excessive manner. As he said - they need to fight this out before they can come to the table.

Moving to politics, in Poland we’ll have a confidence vote on Wednesday. Expect my article tomorrow, but don’t expect snap election yet - all parties can smell the blood but the situation is complex.

Lastly, Keir Starmer announced that UK is moving to war-fighting readiness. Britain will build up to 12 nuclear-powered attack submarines, invest in its nuclear-weapons program and create at least six munitions factories. Is it enough? Hardly, but it’s a start…

Business, Finance & Economics

In business, Polymarket partnered with X and XAI, becoming the exclusive prediction market platform of Elon’s companies. Big shoutout to the team and I’m looking forward to seeing the first results of the partnership.

Moving to finance, ECB lowered interest rates to 2%, an eight consecutive cut amid lowering inflation (1.9% in May y/y). Hopes are to bolster European economy amid the tariff turmoil, and not only…

European carmakers are struggling, partly due to cheap Chinese EV and partly due to Chinese restrictions on rare earth’s exports. Europe is supposedly working on a solution, but overall outlook for the industry is bearish.

Tariffs

After Trump requested a call with Xi (supposedly), the two agreed to hold new talks in London on tariffs and a trade agreement. Trump ,as always, said the call was very good, but it remains to be seen. Tariffs on China are extremely high anyway.

That’s all for today. Tomorrow I’m coming to you with the article on Poland. Stay strong and we’ll see each other soon.