The week surely started in an interesting way with Polymarket announcing that they acquired QCEX, a CFTC regulated exchange, paving a way for the US return. I am still not sure what it means practically, but probably there will be a standalone US platform with separate order book. It’s definitely not ideal, especially for non-US persons, but we need to wait for official comms and farm the +EV as long as we can.

Weekly Outlook

Polymarket had the big announcement, but it’s hardly everything.

US Inc.

Under the leadership of Elbridge Colby, the US asked Japan and Australia to clarify how they would respond in case of Taiwan invasion by China. Between the words it suggests that the US is willing to intervene if it happens, but for now we heard no statements from the US. We only see that they are actively preparing for the possibility.

In the (not so) shocking statement, Trump said that he will not fire Jerome Powell (for now). the market is still divided, with many thinking that it will happen eventually. My article on this comes out tomorrow so stay tuned!

In the meantime, the Epstein drama is still running hot. Trump has now quintupled down on his hoax narrative, but the public is still not really buying it. Especially since the WSJ article came out on Trump’s strange letter to Epstein. For now, Trump asked to unseal the grand jury testimonies, but I doubt it will solve the situation. You can read more about it with my article here.

More locally, Andrew Cuomo will run as an independent for NYC mayor. Between him, Eric Adams and the Republican candidate, Zohran Mamdani has quite an easy job - the trio would need to unite somehow to seriously challenge him.

Lastly, after the Coldplay concert fiasco, Astronomer CEO stepped down from the position. He was seen with his head of HR, hugging on the concert.Your life can be derailed by a single kiss cam it seems.

The Americas

Between Epstein, Powell, trade war and the Middle East drama, the illegal immigration has taken somewhat of a backseat. However, now we learned that El Salvador sent home over 250 Venezuelans detained in America for dozens of political prisoners, including ten Americans.

Asia

On the far east, there was an election in Japan. And it went badly for the ruling prime minister - his Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the upper house after losing one in the lower house back in October.

A bit westward, Taiwan conducted its largest defense drills to date in preparation for the Chinese invasion. If you ask me this whole invasion is being slowly manifested into reality.

Middle East & Africa

First up, straight from the top secret archives, a leaked US intelligence assessment suggests that the damage to two out of three main nuclear enrichment sites in Iran sustained only limited damage and will be operational in months. Essentially we are back to square one when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program and it only raises chances for the renewed conflict.

At the same time, Iran is reportedly resuming its negotiations with Britain, France and Germany. I don’t find them especially meaningful considering Europe’s position on the global stage, but there it is.

In the meantime (amid the supposed Gaza ceasefire talks), Israel has struck Syria several times, including in Damascus itself. I took *check notes* 3 ceasefires to finally make the situation stable… For the longer term though I expect more clashes with Syria as the country maneuvers between Israeli and Turkish influence.

For now the situation seems to be contained, based on Adjacent data:

Lastly, Africa is making a comeback in the series. The Democratic Republic of Congo signed a declaration of principles with M23, a rebel group backed by Rwanda, to bring about a peace deal by August 18th. It’s not the first time we are hearing about a peace deal there this year so I’m remaining skeptical.

Europe

Ukraine’s got a new prime minister. Yulia Svyrydenko was nominated to the position, while the current prime minister is set to become the new defense minister. I am yet to do a bit of research on the topic, so if anything interesting comes up I’ll let you know.

While some power is changing hands in Ukraine, the EU approved another meaningless sanction on Russia. Among others, sanctions lower the price cap on Russian oil and tighten restrictions on Russian banks.

Lastly in Europe, it is reported that thousands of Afghans have been secretly resettled in Britain since 2023. As if the European migrant crisis needed any more heat. From what I see on the ground, the sentiment is changing fast. Even (or especially) among the youth. The question is if it isn’t too late.

Business, Finance & Economics

Coming to economy, inflation in the US accelerated in June to 2.7% y/y, compared to 2.4% y/y in May. It shatters any hopes of a rate cut soon and means we are bound to see yet another outrage of Trump on Powell.

In the House of Representatives, the stablecoin regulation was passed. More than 100 Democrats joined Republicans to push the bill. While it is bullish for the industry in general, some people think it means that banks will suddenly issue their own tokens based on a single remark on the earnings call. Even wilder that the remark was quickly overshadowed by the more important things that the bank is doing. If you’ve ever been in the corporate environment, you know it’s not coming this year:

We also heard some news from China. Its GDP reportedly grew by 5.2% in the Q2. I’m not entirely trusting of the data coming out of China for western consumption, but here it is.

Lastly, Nvidia convinced Trump to allow them to ship H20 chips to China. Huang reportedly persuaded Trump that the move will strengthen American industry. Interesting… I wouldn’t be so sure about that.

Tariffs

When it comes to tariffs, the EU is in shambles. After the announcement of 30% tariffs on the EU, the block didn’t respond in any meaningful matter. Now Maros Sefcovic, the European Union’s trade commissioner, said trade would be almost impossible. In the meantime Ursula von der Leyen still hopes for the deal as she is waiting with the announcement of the countermeasures till August 1st.

Markets are still conflicted on the issues, but it seems that tariffs are coming more likely than a deal:

And from trade deal news, Trump announced a deal with Indonesia. Its exports will face 19% tariff while the US will be allowed a tariff free export. Additionally the country agreed to purchase American energy, agricultural goods and Boeing jets

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. Coming next is the article on Powell (tomorrow).

In the meantime stay strong and we will see each other soon!