[Originally posted on LessWrong and X]
Prediction markets and forecasting platforms are an incredible news source, are interesting to trade, and provide tons of unique data:
- News: Driving news by changes in market odds and providing context to news you read
- Trade: Put on a position directly on an event, not something that is related
- Data: How have similar past events played out, how good is an individual/platform at predicting/forecasting a specific category of events
Adjacent News is a new-age media venture that is focused on using prediction markets and forecasting platforms to add context to the news you already read, where you read it. Generate news that is driven by changes in the markets and provide trading and data platforms.
Verticals
News
We have two categories: Published and In Context News.
Published News - articles that we produce and distribute, this is mostly through generation of content based on shifts in odds across various markets but also features original content from various writers and forecasters. Content is distributed via Adjacent News, RSS, X / Twitter, and via a Telegram Channel
We are exploring other methods of distribution like Apple News, Google News, Farcaster, etc. If you have any ideas for other distribution methods email us at [email protected]In Context News - We meet you were you consume news and provide contextual information about related markets. This comes in the form of Chrome Extension and an RSS Reader.
Trade
Many prediction market and forecasting platforms have similar markets, if they are "real money" there are potential arbitrages. Our TradingView interface at trade.adj.news lets you chart any market from multiple platforms over each other and analyze it with standard trading and charting tools.
Data
It can be hard to find historical data on markets, view related markets intra and cross platform, and see relevant news to the markets you are trading and/or forecasting.
data.adj.news supports historical, related, trending, and news related to markets across top platforms with more being added soon.
Products
Chrome Extension
- Markets directly in your Twitter / X feed and popular news sources like NYT, WSJ, Reuters, etc. below are some examples
Data Platform
- Robust data platform Kalshi, and Polymarket, and soon Manifold and Metaculus,
- Raw data downloads (snapshotted every 15min) from various exchanges
- Historical data, related news, related markets, and more
RSS Reader
- Ability to follow any RSS feed to be automatically matched with related markets
- We also tweet out popular articles from this feed AdjacentNews
Trade
Chart markets across platforms together, the easiest way to view market data.
Notebooks
An easy way to explore market data via Observable, simply fork the market data and create data visualizations that are easy to share out. Perfect for quick analysis of a market and sharing as a blog post.
API
Want to build your own integration? We support querying 40k+ markets across various platforms, fetching related news, and related markets for them.
Everything we are building is open-source and can be found at https://github.com/orgs/adjacentresearchxyz/repositories?q=adj.news
Team and Roadmap
Currently the team is just me Lucas Kohorst (X, Website). I have built many open source projects which can be found on my Github and via Adjacent Research. I have written about prediction markets under Ramblings on Event Markets and attended Manifest last year!
Roadmap
A lot of members of the forecasting community are likely familiar with Base Rate Times who is / was focused on a lot of the same concepts we are. “News Aggregation”, “538 for prediction markets”, “Forecasts being underutilized by the media”.
While we are solving for the same problem: Discoverability of prediction markets, using markets as a way to easily produce forward looking news and provide context to current news...
We are approaching it significantly different. Adjacent is focusing on
- Building a robust data platform and API across various exchanges and platforms, aggregating all the markets that exist
- Adding context via markets to the news that you currently read, wherever you read.
- We use vector embeddings to match up any headline / article with any related market and show them to you
- Generating our own news based on market movements
Our goal is to be a media company that is producing news content driven by prediction markets and the go to data platform for checking market odds and related news across a variety of exchanges.
Our future roadmap consists of
- Integrate more platforms and markets
- Launch something similar to DBNews or SpectatorIndex where we are the fastest reporting feed for shifts in market odds
- Integrate prediction markets into trade.adj.news so you can directly trade from within a TradingView interface across multiple platforms
- We are considering launching non-automated more opinionated news column, something like a mix of Sentinel and Prophet Notes. If you are interested in this idea or what to be a author / contributor, please reach out!
Support and Feedback
Membership
The best way to support us is through a membership, which you can subscribe to here. It gives you
- Full Access to all articles
- 10k requests/mo across the Chrome Extension, API, and Notebooks (free tier is 1k requests)
- Unlock full historical data
Donations
You can directly donate / tip to support our work here.
Prior Funding
We have previously received $1k from a Manifund Round and are considering applying to other grants like Emergent Ventures.
Feedback
If you are interested in this project, have questions, feedback, would like to explore a partnership or generally just want to chat you can reach me at via mail at [email protected], on X at https://twitter.com/0xperp, or via Telegram at t.me/lucaskohorst.