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Likelihood of US-Iran Nuclear Deal?

US-Iran Nuclear Deal Likelihood Index hits 73.9%

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TL;DR:

  • US-Iran Nuclear Deal Likelihood Index hits 73.9%
  • Low odds of Iran enriching uranium to weapons grade threshold, trading at 2% and US and Israel military actions trading lower at 12% and 20% respectively, signaling cautious optimism for a deal.
  • “U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?” market hits 18.2% with $11,602 volume, driven by Senate hearings and a White House AI risk report.
  • Potential AI safety bill could impose billions in compliance costs on tech giants, influencing innovation and global regulatory standards.

Market Snapshots

Event Breakdown

Likelihood of US-Iran Nuclear Deal?: This week, we turn our focus to the likelihood of the US and Iran getting a nuclear deal done. Our newly launched US-Iran Nuclear Deal Likelihood Index stands at 73.9%, offering a weighted snapshot of the probability of a nuclear deal materializing amidst a complex web of geopolitical and military dynamics.

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This index aggregates prediction market data across several key markets—"US-Iran nuclear deal before July?" at 34.5%, "US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?" at 58.9%, "Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before June?" NO is trading at 97.7%. Similarly unlikely events including, "Iran Nuke in 2025?" NO is trading at 91%, NO "US military action against Iran before July?" is trading at 88% and NO US military action against Iran before July? At 88% and NO “Israel military action against Iran before July?” trading at 80%. These markets, weighted by time horizon, impact severity, and market liquidity, provide a dynamic lens into the likelihood of diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.

For "US-Iran nuclear deal before July?" and "US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?", we are focused on the probability of YES outcomes. Conversely, for "Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before June?", "Iran Nuke in 2025?", "US military action against Iran before July?", and "Israel military action against Iran before July?", we are focused on the probabilities of NO outcomes as that indirectly signals an increase in the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal getting done.

The real-world implications of these markets are profound. A 34.5% chance of a nuclear deal before July, paired with a 58.5% likelihood in 2025, reflects cautious optimism for diplomacy but underscores persistent hurdles. A deal could stabilize global energy markets by easing sanctions on Iranian oil, potentially lowering prices—Iran's production capacity sits at roughly 3.8 million barrels per day (per 2024 OPEC data), a significant share of global supply. However, failure to secure an agreement might heighten tensions causing an increase in the likelihood of  Iran successfully enriching uranium to 90%, a threshold for weapons-grade material. Such a move could provoke international sanctions or military responses, with the “US military action against Iran before July?" and "Israel military action against Iran before July?" odds of US or Israeli military action signaling potential conflict. Iran’s strategic position in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil passes, means escalation could disrupt energy supplies, spiking prices and impacting economies worldwide.

The value of a weighted index like this lies in its ability to synthesize diverse market signals into a single, actionable metric. Individual markets can be volatile or biased by low liquidity, but by aggregating and weighting them—emphasizing near-term risks, high-impact outcomes, and robust trading activity—the index provides a more accurate depiction of the current state of affairs. For instance, a spike in the index might reflect converging risks, such as simultaneous upticks in military action odds and uranium enrichment probabilities, a signal that might be missed by tracking markets in isolation. This aggregated approach empowers traders, forecasters, and analysts to anticipate shifts, offering a clearer picture of whether a deal is likely or if escalation looms.

As news unfolds—whether through diplomatic talks, IAEA reports, or regional skirmishes—these markets will continue to evolve, and our index will adjust in real-time. Track these probabilities on Polymarket for the latest updates, as they offer a window into how global events translate into tradable information. The US-Iran Nuclear Deal Likelihood Index not only informs but anticipates, positioning you at the intersection of news and strategic opportunity in this high-stakes geopolitical arena.

Related markets & forecasts:

Long-Tail Radar

This week’s Long-tail Radar spotlights an intriguing market on Polymarket: "U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?" with $11,602 in volume. Since its inception, the market has fluctuated, starting near 20% in mid-April before dipping to a low around 10% by late April, and recently climbing to 18.2% as of the time of this writing. This upward trend reflects growing trader interest, likely fueled by recent developments in AI policy debates and regulatory momentum in Washington.

The intrigue stems from the rapid evolution of AI technologies and the U.S. government’s increasing focus on managing associated risks. Recent news, including Senate hearings on AI ethics in April 2025 and calls from tech leaders for standardized safety protocols, has amplified speculation. A White House report released last month highlighted potential national security and economic threats from unregulated AI, prompting bipartisan discussions. This market captures a niche yet impactful risk, offering traders a window into a regulatory shift that could reshape the tech landscape.

If the U.S. enacts an AI safety bill in 2025, the implications would be far-reaching. Companies like OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and xAI would face new compliance costs—estimated in the billions—potentially slowing innovation but enhancing public trust. The bill could mandate transparency in AI decision-making, restrict autonomous systems in critical infrastructure, and impose hefty fines for violations, impacting stock valuations across the sector. Economically, it might create jobs in compliance and auditing while deterring foreign investment if regulations are deemed too stringent. Geopolitically, a U.S.-led standard could pressure other countries to align, influencing global AI governance.

The market’s $11,602 volume, modest yet significant for a long-tail event, signals emerging trader attention. As news unfolds—whether through legislative drafts or tech lobbying efforts—this market will likely see further movement. Track it on Polymarket for real-time updates, as it highlights a critical intersection of technology, policy, and profit potential in an increasingly AI-driven world.

Questions we asked

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