Mamdani’s Win: Wall Street Reacts & Forecasting the Largest Company in 2025

What’s next following the NYC Democratic Primary

Doug Crescenzi

27 Jun 2025 — 5 min read

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TL;DR:

Zohran Mamdani stuns in the NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary, defeating Andrew Cuomo.
Ranked choice voting (RCV) tabulation begins July 1, with final certification due by July 15.
Mamdani’s far-left policies spark Wall Street fears, with REITs dropping 430 basis points.
“Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election?” market shows 75% for Mamdani.
“Largest Company at the end of 2025?” markets highlight NVIDIA and Microsoft as frontrunners on Polymarket and Limitless.
“Will Bill Ackman announce a new candidate for NYC Mayor before July?” sits at 9%.

Market Snapshots

Event Breakdown

What’s next in the NYC Mayoral Race: Two weeks ago we covered the NYC Mayoral race and boy have things changed fast. The NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 24, 2025, delivered a stunning outcome, with Zohran Mamdani defeating frontrunner Andrew Cuomo, defying earlier Polymarket odds.

This shift, reflected in the latest market data, underscores a surge in support for Mamdani’s far-left platform, sparking widespread concern among financial and business leaders. The ranked choice voting (RCV) tabulation, set to begin July 1 with final certification by July 15, will further clarify the margin, with current projections suggesting less than five rounds.

Mamdani’s victory has rattled Wall Street, where executives fear his policies—rent freezes, free childcare, and subsidized groceries—could deter investment and destabilize real estate. The “Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election?” market, now showing 75% for Mamdani, highlights this unease, with REITs already tumbling 430 basis points as investors brace for potential housing market shocks.

Meanwhile, the market, “% of inactive ballots in NYC Mayor Dem Primary”, highlights ballots that have become inactive during the ranked-choice voting (RCV) process. A ballot is considered inactive if it is no longer eligible to be transferred in a given RCV round. The inactive ballots percentage is calculated as: (Total number of inactive ballots in the final round ÷ Total number of ballots cast in the first round) × 100.

The distribution of inactive ballots reveals voter behavior and candidate support patterns. For example, in 2021, the highest shares of inactive ballots overlapped with neighborhoods where Andrew Yang had strong support, as many of his voters did not rank the final two candidates, Eric Adams or Kathryn Garcia, resulting in those ballots becoming inactive when Yang was eliminated. Conversely, in predominantly Black and Latino neighborhoods where Adams did well, there were relatively few inactive ballots, indicating that voters in these communities tended to rank candidates who made it to the final round, ensuring their ballots remained active.

Fears surrounding Mamdani’s primary victory have many asking what alternatives they have this late in the game. “Will Bill Ackman announce a new candidate for NYC Mayor before July?” sits at 9%, signaling potential counter-moves by billionaire backers, while “Will Michael Bloomberg announce NYC mayoral run before August?” at 5% indicates limited appetite for new entrants given the late election cycle. Cuomo’s independent party line and the “Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election?” market at 54% suggest a slim chance of his return, with his concession speech leaving the door ajar but unlikely to open.

Endorsement markets—“Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?” (35%), “Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?” (46%), and “Will Obama endorse Mamdani?” (36%)—point to a polarized landscape, with Adams potentially emerging as a moderate alternative if financial titans rally behind him.

Economically, a Mamdani mayoralty could reshape NYC’s fiscal policy, prioritizing social equity over infrastructure, potentially increasing municipal debt to fund progressive initiatives. Businesses, from tech startups to retailers, face uncertainty—rent controls might lower operational costs for some but deter new commercial development, impacting long-term growth. Hedge funds, tracking these shifts, may adjust bets on bonds and real estate, with a Mamdani win possibly driving volatility and an exodus to states like Florida or Texas.

The election’s directional future hinges on these outcomes. A Mamdani administration could set a national precedent for urban socialist policies, influencing housing and labor markets beyond NYC. Conversely, a general election upset could reinforce traditional economic priorities. As early voting data and RCV rounds unfold, these markets will offer real-time insights, turning political drama into actionable signals for investors and policymakers navigating NYC’s evolving landscape.

Related markets & forecasts:

Long-Tail Radar

This week’s Long-tail Radar zooms in on the “Largest Company end of 2025?” markets on Limitless, a decentralized exchange with $9,252 in total volume, offering a niche lens on corporate dominance. Key contenders include NVIDIA ($2,800), Microsoft ($1,844), Apple ($1,907), Alphabet ($1,234), Amazon ($232), and an intriguing “Other” category ($1,234), reflecting speculative bets on dark horse candidates.

This contrasts sharply with Polymarket’s high-volume market ($2.6M total), featuring NVIDIA ($596K), Microsoft ($358K), Apple ($234K), Tesla ($371K), Alphabet ($358K), Amazon ($378K), and Saudi Aramco ($337), where liquidity drives more stable odds.

The Limitless market’s low volume fuels volatility, with NVIDIA and Microsoft showing dramatic spikes—up to 60-70% at times—suggesting early enthusiasm for AI and cloud computing leaders. Apple’s steady decline to around 20-30% aligns with both platforms, hinting at waning growth confidence. The “Other” category’s persistence at $1,234 signals traders’ openness to surprises, a flexibility absent in Polymarket’s defined options. This divergence highlights Limitless as a testing ground for unconventional insights, where small trades can sway probabilities before broader consensus forms.

These markets intrigue due to their dual narrative. Limitless’s volatility captures niche sentiment—perhaps driven by AI hype or regional trader focus—while Polymarket’s depth reflects a global crowd’s view. The overlap, like NVIDIA’s rising odds (40-45% recently), validates AI’s momentum, yet Limitless’s higher peaks suggest over-optimism or unique data. For investors, this offers a dual signal: Polymarket for reliability, Limitless for early trends. Real-world stakes are high—NVIDIA or Microsoft leading could boost tech stocks, while an “Other” upset might signal energy or industrial shifts. As 2025 nears, tracking these markets could reveal which sector dominates, turning niche bets into actionable foresight.

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