New Globalization Index: Tracking Trade, Tech, and Tensions

From Trade Deals to TikTok, Decode Globalization with our New Globalization Index

Doug Crescenzi

20 May 2025 — 6 min read

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TL;DR:

We introduce a new Globalization Index (currently at 57.6%), that leverages weighted prediction market data to track economic, technological, social/cultural, and political interconnectedness.
High-probability markets like U.S.-India trade deals (84%) signal economic integration, while low-probability political markets like Russia-Ukraine ceasefire (19%) highlight diplomatic challenges, reflecting a mixed globalization outlook.
Markets such as ChatGPT reaching 1B users (54%) show tech-driven global connectivity, but risks like a potential TikTok ban (9%) point to cultural barriers.
Long-tail markets, like IRS tax collection (99%, $52,674 volume) and Trump abolishing the IRS (6%, $65,034 volume), offer early signals for fiscal policy shifts.

Market Snapshots

Event Breakdown

New Globalization Index: This week, we introduce our new Globalization Index, a powerful tool leveraging weighted prediction market data to quantify and track the extent of global interconnectedness across economic, social, cultural, political, and technological dimensions. Currently standing at 57.6%, the index synthesizes insights from 19 markets across these categories, including economic indicators like "Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam with before July?" (67%), technological markers such as "Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?" (86%), social/cultural trends like "Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?" NO (89%), and political dynamics such as "EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine?" (22%). By weighting these markets based on time horizon (near-term events prioritized), impact severity (economic markets weighted most, followed by technological, social/cultural, and political), and market liquidity/volume, the index offers a comprehensive measure of globalization.

Interested in building your own index with the Adjacent API? Check out our new Observable Helper Function Notebook and build faster!

The Globalization Index serves multiple objectives: it enables measurement and comparison of globalization levels over time, informs policymakers and businesses about trends for trade, investment, and diplomacy, identifies patterns like rising economic integration or declining political cooperation, benchmarks progress across countries, and provides data for research into globalization’s impacts on growth, inequality, and geopolitics. For instance, economic markets, such as "Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India with before July?" (84%), signal potential trade integration, while social/cultural markets, like "Will TikTok be banned before July?" NO (91%), reflect cultural cohesion or division.

At 57.6%, the index suggests a world grappling with both integration and fragmentation. Economic markets show cautious optimism, with "Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan with before July?" at 56%, hinting at potential supply chain diversification.

However, political markets, such as "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?" (19%), indicate diplomatic stagnation, potentially fueling more conflict.

Technological markets, like "Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?" (54%), reflect innovation’s role in connecting global users, while social/cultural markets, such as "Will TikTok be banned before July?" (9%), highlight cultural barriers.

The real-world implications are profound. A rising Globalization Index signals deeper interconnectedness, fostering economic growth through trade—potentially adding trillions to global GDP—while enhancing cultural exchange and technological collaboration. For example, if "Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam with before July?" climbs higher, it could strengthen Asia-Pacific supply chains, benefiting industries like tech and manufacturing. Conversely, a declining index points to deglobalization, risking economic stagnation, supply chain disruptions, and cultural isolation. If "Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline?" drops further from 75%, it could trigger tariff wars, raising consumer prices and straining diplomatic ties.

The value of a weighted index lies in its ability to distill diverse signals into a single, actionable metric. Individual markets can be volatile or skewed by low liquidity, but by prioritizing near-term, high-impact events—like economic deals over political summits—the Globalization Index provides a clearer depiction of global dynamics. This approach empowers traders, policymakers, and researchers to anticipate shifts, whether toward integration or fragmentation, offering a quantitative lens into tradable information. As news unfolds—be it trade negotiations, tech breakthroughs, or geopolitical tensions—these markets will evolve, and the index will adjust in real-time. Track them on Polymarket for updates, and see how the Globalization Index positions you at the nexus of global trends and profit potential.

Related markets & forecasts:

Long-Tail Radar

This week’s Long-tail Radar spotlights two intriguing long-tail markets on Polymarket: “Will the IRS collect more taxes this year than last?” with $52,674 in volume, and “Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?” with $65,034 in volume. These markets, though distinct, offer early signals that could influence broader fiscal and political forecasts.

The “Will the IRS collect more taxes this year than last?” market has surged to 99% as of late May 20th, reflecting trader speculation amid recent tax policy debates. With $52,674 in volume, this market captures growing interest in fiscal performance, particularly as economic data points to potential revenue shifts. A rise in tax collection could signal a robust economy or stricter enforcement, potentially reducing political pressure to dismantle the agency. Conversely, if collections lag, it might fuel calls for reform or abolition, offering a leading indicator for related markets.

Paired with this is “Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?,” currently at 6%, with $65,034 in volume. This market’s steady climb suggests traders are weighing the likelihood of a bold policy move, especially with Trump’s recent rhetoric on government overhaul. The low probability hints at skepticism, but the volume indicates modest engagement, possibly driven by fiscal policy news or legislative hints. The interplay between these markets is compelling: if IRS tax revenue exceeds last year’s totals, it could undermine the case for abolition, potentially dragging the 6% down. Alternatively, a push to abolish the IRS might prompt traders to bet against higher collections, creating a feedback loop.

These long-tail markets provide early signals for traders and forecasters. A spike in tax collection odds could foreshadow movement in related markets, such as “Trump cuts taxes in 2025?” or “Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?” Conversely, a rise in abolition odds might ripple into markets tracking government spending cuts or economic deregulation. The $117,708 combined volume underscores their niche yet impactful nature, drawing attention as news unfolds—be it budget announcements or policy leaks.

Track these markets on Polymarket for real-time updates. Their modest liquidity and focused trader interest make them a window into fiscal policy shifts, offering a unique lens into future tax revenue.

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