NYC Mayoral Race Heats Up

Tracking Cuomo vs. Mamdani and the Money Supply Signals for 2025

Doug Crescenzi

10 Jun 2025 — 5 min read

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TL;DR:

NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary approaches on June 24, with Andrew Cuomo leading and Zohran Mamdani gaining ground.
Ranked Choice Voting margin and rounds suggest a potentially close and extended primary race.
Long-tail Radar spotlights “Will money printer go brrr in 2025?” and M2 exceeding $22T, hinting at shifting monetary expectations.
Hedge funds and NYC businesses prepare for economic impacts from the election outcome and potential Federal Reserve moves in 2025.
Dual-platform analysis of Polymarket and Limitless provides nuanced insights into market trends for investors.

Market Snapshots

Event Breakdown

NYC Mayoral Election: With the NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary just two weeks away on June 24, the race between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani is heating up, as reflected in the latest prediction market trends from Polymarket and Limitless.

Both platforms show Cuomo maintaining a strong lead, with his odds of winning the Democratic primary hovering between 76% - 78%, while Mamdani trails at 22% - 25%. On Limitless, similar patterns emerge, with Cuomo’s primary win probability at 78.3% and Mamdani at 21.6%.

These figures underscore a tight contest, with Cuomo’s past governance experience clashing against Mamdani’s rising progressive momentum.

The Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) margin of victory markets add intrigue, with Polymarket indicating a 30% chance that Cuomo’s margin will be less than 5%, suggesting a potential close call.

The number of RCV rounds needed to decide the primary hints at a fragmented field that could extend the process.

Meanwhile, the possibility of Cuomo dropping out, at 1% on Polymarket and his campaign’s $3.9 million fundraising haul signals resilience in spite of scrutiny over past allegations. Mamdani’s progressive platform, including rent freezes and fare-free buses, has fueled his rise, with odds of winning the general election at 21% on Polymarket, compared to Cuomo’s 71%.

Aggregating data across Polymarket and Limitless reveals nuanced market sentiments. Limitless shows a slight uptick in Mamdani’s odds to 22%, possibly driven by grassroots support, while Polymarket’s broader user base keeps Cuomo dominant. This dual-platform analysis, enhanced by Adjacent’s market-monitoring tools, offers a comprehensive view, blending decentralized insights.

These movements carry real-world weight. For hedge funds, the primary’s outcome could sway bets on NYC real estate and municipal bonds, with a Cuomo win potentially stabilizing markets due to his established record, while Mamdani’s policies might spark volatility from progressive reforms. Companies based in NYC, from tech startups to retail giants, face policy shifts—Cuomo’s infrastructure focus versus Mamdani’s rent controls—impacting operational costs and growth strategies.

The timing amplifies stakes. With early voting starting June 14, market shifts could reflect last-minute campaign developments, such as debates or scandals. A prolonged RCV process, with leading odds of seven rounds (15%), might delay certainty, affecting short-term investment decisions. For NYC’s economy, a Cuomo victory could prioritize infrastructure and tourism recovery, while Mamdani’s win might push social equity, altering budget allocations. Directionally, the outcome will shape the city’s fiscal policy—debt management under Cuomo or social spending under Mamdani—potentially influencing national urban trends.

This election’s market data, tracked in real-time, turns political drama into a quantitative edge. For stakeholders, from investors to local businesses, these forecasts offer a lens to navigate uncertainty, balancing immediate risks with long-term city planning as the June 24 deadline nears.

Related markets & forecasts:

Long-Tail Radar

This week’s Long-tail Radar zeroes in on the “Will money printer go brrr in 2025?” market on Limitless, a niche yet telling barometer with a current volume of $6,627. This market hinges on whether the Federal Reserve’s Total Assets (WALCL) surge by at least $1T between April 8, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. As of now, the probability sits at 18.3%, reflecting recent market volatility. Paired with this is the “Will U.S. M2 Money Supply exceed $22,000 billion in 2025?” market, boasting $11,246 in volume, which resolves to “YES” if a monthly M2 value tops $22T in 2025. Its odds currently stand at 88%, showing a steady climb since March.

These long-tail markets offer early signals for broader economic shifts. The “money printer” market’s recent moves aligns with heightened speculation around Federal Reserve asset expansion, potentially foreshadowing inflationary pressures. The M2 market’s parallel rise suggests traders anticipate a money supply increase, possibly driven by fiscal stimulus or quantitative easing.

The relationship between the markets reveals a fascinating divergence in trader sentiment over recent weeks.

This split could stem from shifting expectations about Federal Reserve actions—traders might be anticipating a slower asset expansion pace, reducing “money printer” confidence, while betting on broader money supply growth driven by fiscal policy or bank lending. The decline in “money printer” odds might also reflect skepticism about a $1T asset surge, possibly due to tighter monetary signals, whereas the M2 rise could signal optimism about economic stimulus boosting circulation, highlighting how these markets capture distinct facets of monetary policy.

For hedge funds, a rising “money printer” probability could prompt bets on rising bond yields or currency hedges, mitigating inflation risks. The M2 market’s trajectory might guide equity allocations, with a $22T threshold signaling growth stock opportunities or commodity plays. Traders can use these odds to hedge against macroeconomic shifts, adjusting portfolios as probabilities evolve. The modest liquidity of these markets, compared to mainstream indices, amplifies their role as early indicators, potentially presaging movements in high-volume markets like the S&P 500 or dollar index.

The visualization underscores this dynamic, charting both markets since inception. This interplay highlights how long-tail markets can illuminate subtle economic currents, turning obscure data into actionable insights for forecasters and investors navigating 2025’s fiscal landscape.

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