The US Political Future Index (UPFI) provides a comprehensive, real-time measure of anticipated Republican versus Democratic political control across major US electoral offices. Built on prediction market data from Kalshi, UPFI aggregates market-based probabilities to deliver a forward-looking gauge of political sentiment and power distribution expectations.
UPFI exclusively uses Kalshi prediction market data, ensuring regulatory compliance through CFTC oversight and maintaining data consistency across all included markets.
The index employs a weighting methodology that reflects both political significance and market characteristics:
- Category Weights: Presidential (40%), Senate (30%), House (20%), Gubernatorial (8%), Mayoral (2%)
- Market Weights: Volume sensitivity, time to expiration, population representation, and inherent political impact
The index spans five major office categories across federal, state, and local levels, incorporating markets for Presidential elections, Senate races, House contests, Gubernatorial elections, and qualifying Mayoral races.
note: composite indices follow a 100 - (50 - weighted_probability) pricing, non-composite are simply probability on a democrat (0) to republican (100) scale
The full methodology of the index can be read here. We also regularly explore elements of the index in our notebook collection.
If you would like to see how different prices and weights affect the index we have provided the following spreadsheet, which can be accessed on Google Sheets or downloaded below.
We have also detailed common questions in our FAQ