TL;DR:
- Traders on the Democrat side are outspending Republican trades 2:1 across all UPFI markets
- The Presidential market shows tight competition with Democrats holding a slim margin while Republicans drive higher trading volumes
- Senate markets reveal strategic divergence as Democrat trades concentrate volume on fewer races while Republicans spread trades across more contests
- House trading heavily favors Democrats with over double the Republican volume
- Gubernatorial races attract Republican focus with nearly twice the Democratic volume
- Mayoral markets punch above their weight generating the highest absolute trading volume - primarily driven by the NYC Mayoral election market - despite being the smallest category
đź“Š Introducing UPFI: Earlier this week we launched the US Political Future Index (UPFI), the world's first prediction market index.
UPFI tracks 130+ markets currently across five categories (i.e., President, Senate, House, Gubernatorial, and Mayoral) and exclusive to Kalshi markets. The index improves over time as new markets are added, as volume increases, and as elections approach.
The index aggregates prediction market data and employs sophisticated weighting that reflects both political significance and market characteristics.
As we examine the current state of UPFI's underlying markets, clear patterns at this point in time emerge in both trading volume and competitive margins.
This analysis breaks down the market activity and electoral margins across each category, revealing where political energy is concentrated and which races are driving the most uncertainty.
Presidential Markets
The presidential category demonstrates 40% of the composite UPFI index. Currently, Republican positions show notably higher trading activity compared to Democratic positions, suggesting stronger conviction or more active positioning among GOP traders.
Currently, the single presidential market that is tracked shows Democrats maintaining a slight edge, indicating a competitive race where neither party holds commanding market confidence. This creates an interesting dynamic where Democrats lead in probability while Republicans demonstrate higher trading engagement.
The volume differential between parties creates significant dynamics for the index weighting, as UPFI's volume sensitivity factors will amplify the influence of the more heavily traded Republican positions. The higher Republican volume despite trailing in probability suggests either hedging activity or expectations of potential momentum changes in the race.
Senate Markets
Senate markets - 30% of the UPFI composite - show Republicans now holding a slight volume advantage over Democrats, with the GOP generating approximately 10% more trading activity. This represents a more balanced engagement pattern compared to other categories, suggesting both parties see significant opportunities and risks in Senate contests.
Republicans are active across more individual markets while maintaining slightly higher total volume, indicating broader geographic engagement combined with substantial conviction.
Democrats, while showing somewhat lower overall volume, demonstrate higher average volume per active market, suggesting they're concentrating their trading activity on fewer, high-stakes contests where they may see greater uncertainty or opportunity.
The relatively balanced volume between parties, combined with Republicans' broader market presence, suggests a competitive Senate landscape where both parties anticipate consequential battles across numerous states.
House Markets
House markets - making up 20% of the UPFI composite - show the strongest Democratic volume dominance across all UPFI categories, with Democratic positions generating more than double the Republican trading activity.
The data reveals Democrats are trading across more individual markets while maintaining significantly higher average volume per market, indicating both broader engagement and deeper liquidity in their favored races.
Republicans, while showing lower overall engagement, maintain presence across a substantial number of markets. The volume disparity may reflect different strategic outlooks on House control, with Democrats potentially seeing more paths to gains while Republicans focus resources elsewhere in their electoral strategy.
Gubernatorial Markets
Gubernatorial races - making up 8% of the UPFI composite - demonstrate a more dramatic volume imbalance within UPFI, with Republican positions generating nearly double the Democratic trading activity.
This substantial disparity suggests Republicans are either seeing significant opportunities for pickups or are actively hedging against potential losses in key state races.
Republicans are engaged across more individual markets while maintaining higher average volume per race, indicating both broader geographic interest and deeper conviction in specific contests.
The pronounced volume advantage may reflect Republican traders’ focus on gubernatorial races as critical for redistricting influence, voting law changes, or policy implementation at the state level. Democrat traders, while showing lower engagement, maintain substantial presence across numerous races, suggesting they're monitoring competitive situations but may be prioritizing resources elsewhere in their electoral trading strategies.
Mayoral Markets
Mayoral races - making up 2% of the UPFI composite - present a striking contrast to other UPFI categories, with Democratic positions commanding significantly higher volume despite the limited number of tracked contests. The Mayor of NYC party winner market and support for Mamdani plays dominates roll in total volume.
The individual race breakdown reveals wide competitive disparities, ranging from strong Republican advantages to overwhelming Democratic leads in different municipalities.
This category's outsized trading activity relative to its small UPFI weighting highlights how the NYC Mayoral race is an important bellwether for broader political trends. In particular, a move towards socialism.
UPFI Composite Totals
The aggregate UPFI data reveals fascinating cross-category patterns that illuminate the current political landscape.
Democratic positions maintain an overall volume advantage across all categories combined, driven primarily by substantial leads in mayoral and House markets that offset Republican strength in gubernatorial races.
Market count analysis shows Republicans currently favored in more individual contests, particularly dominating gubernatorial races while trailing significantly in House predictions.
The margin differentials paint a picture of varied competitive intensity—from thin presidential margins to commanding leads in certain categories. Mayoral markets generate the highest absolute volume despite representing the smallest category by count, suggesting these races carry outsized significance for traders.
The total volume distribution shows Democrats driving nearly twice the overall market activity. This engagement across categories creates dynamic weighting effects within UPFI, where volume-sensitive calculations amplify the influence of more heavily traded positions, potentially magnifying shifts in political momentum as they develop.
* * *
The UPFI data snapshot reveals a political landscape characterized by engagement and varied competitive dynamics across electoral levels.
The volume patterns tell a compelling story: Democratic traders appear to be concentrating resources on fewer, high-stakes races where they see opportunity, while Republicans are spreading engagement across a broader electoral map.
As UPFI continues to evolve, these underlying market dynamics will shape the index's movements, with volume-weighted calculations amplifying the influence of the most actively traded positions.
The current data establishes a baseline for tracking how political sentiment shifts as we move closer to electoral outcomes, providing real-time insights that traditional polling cannot match.
Interested in learning more about UPFI or Adjacent’s index business?
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