Good morning! The world is anxiously awaiting Trump's visit to China. As the preparations for the trip go on, we hear little news on the Iran war, even as Israel is pushing ahead in Lebanon. However, this surely doesn't help the peace effort.
Outside of the Iran war, all eyes in politics are looking now at PM Keir Starmer as his troubles continue. While he might have won the most recent confrontations, traders are rather pessimistic we will see him as the PM for much longer.
This and more in today's Morning Brief!
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
The Iran war peace chances are flat at 18% by the end of the month.
Trump suggested that the ceasefire is currently on life support, hinting that a resumption of hostilities might be in the books. However, traders do not expect an escalation in the short term, especially before Trump's China visit commences:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. With each day passing, traders see less and less hope we will see a normalization of traffic in the short-term.
Polymarket traders are in a direct confrontation with the top investment banks, as both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have the strait opening by June 1st as their base case. For now, commodities traders tend to trust the banks over prediction markets with main oil benchmarks elevated, but below their recent tops:
#3 IDF Crossed The Litani River
Times of Israel reported that the IDF soldiers had crossed the Litani River in an operation aiming to destroy several Hezbollah positions.
Israel is now in an open defiance of the ceasefire agreement as tensions are high in the Middle East. That being said, traders saw the crossing as likely for almost a week now.
#4 China Visit Delegation
The Trump administration announced a rather wide delegation of business leader joining Trump in his trip to China.
Traders didn't really expect that as the chances of Elon Musk x Trump conversation in May sat at only 17% before the announcement. Additionally, the inclusion of the business leaders suggests that business dealings will be an important part of the visit.
#5 Starmer Facing Troubles
Keir Starmer might have just narrowly escaped a resignation as his allies issued public support for him after the recent cabinet meeting.
Starmer has had a difficult time for a while now as his party struggles to win local elections against the right-wing parties. The calls for his resignation are being floated for months now, however till now he managed to defy them.
That being said, future problems loom and he will have a hard time clinging to his job for long as traders see a 50% chance he will lose the job by the end of June.
Wrap up
The global situation remains dynamic ahead of Trump visit to China.
We will continue to monitor the Iran situation as it develops.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.