Good morning! Overnight we learned that the Iranian response to the US peace proposal had been negative. Now we await a new narrative for the week as Trump is getting ready for his China visit.
Outside of the Iran war there are rumors that the Clarity Act faces a new set of issues. The Trump admin is keen to see it passed, but first they need to accommodate the needs of different interest groups affected by the new legislation. Lastly, there are reports of the first hantavirus case in a US national.
Let's see the market sand what the traders forecast for these events.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
We've finally heard from Iran when it comes to the recent MoU proposal and the answer is not what everyone was hoping for.
Iran rejected the American proposal and chances for peace are once again down. Traders expect the stalemate to continue beyond the end of June with 60% chance of no deal by then.
However, the restart of the hostilities is not expected either in the short-term:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. With no deal in sight, traders updated their forecast when it comes to traffic normalization, currently at 14%.
Energy prices had a rather muted response as we await this week's narrative:
#3 China Visit Confirmed
China has confirmed the dates for Trump visit. POTUS will arrive in China on May 13th and he will have 2 days, during which he is expected to discuss the Iran war, among other issues.
While plenty of issues will be discussed, many hope that Xi can play a role in pushing both sides of the Iran war to a permanent peace deal. China is one of the most affected countries by the Strait of Hormuz closure, especially since it as the main buyer of sanctioned Iranian crude.
#4 Clarity Act Faces Problems
Clarity Act faces a new set of problems as stakeholders and lobbyist battle for favorable clauses being included in the act.
Recent reports suggest the act might be delayed by up to 3 years due to technical details in the digital asset legal classification. Ultimately though, it is a threat from the banking lobby that is looking to ban passive yield on stablecoins.
The chances on the market collapsed from 79% to 62% on the news.
#5 Hantavirus In The US?
A US national that was on boards of the cruise ship tested positive for hantavirus infection.
The market in question requires a lab-confirmed result to resolve to Yes, however. For now we are awaiting results of the test. The recent hantavirus outbreak made some people anxious, but there are low chances we will see another COVID-like pandemic due to limited transmissibility combined with a high mortality rate (over 30%):
Wrap up
The global situation remains dynamic ahead of Trump visit to China.
We will continue to monitor the Iran situation as it develops.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.