Good morning! Trump is en route to China along with several business leaders. We are awaiting first reports from the ground, especially on the possible discussions around the Iran war. We also expect news on business dealings, rare earth minerals and tariffs.
Additionally, it seems that the Trump administration is looking to make deals, both with Cuba and Greenland. And lastly, we are possibly looking at a new government in Romania as early as next week, with the market unsure on who will be the next prime minister.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
The chances for a peace deal are flat as Trump downgraded the importance of discussing the situation with Xi ahead of his China visit.
The diplomatic process appears to have stalled. Since the Iranian rejection of the one-page MoU, we had no news on the progress. We expect talks to continue, but the China visit takes priority this week.
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
With no progress being reported, the chances of the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization trended lower, reaching only 31% by the end of June.
Prediction markets traders continue to defy the conventional analysis from the top investment banks. However, the energy markets seem to agree more with the prediction markets' assessment, as all oil benchmarks are once again above $100 per barrel:
#3 Can We Avoid A War In Cuba?
Trump teased talks with Cuba before his departure to China, sending the market higher.
The situation on the island continues to be dire, but it seems that the Trump administration prefers a diplomatic solution over yet another war. However, the president failed to provide any details on the teased meeting, preventing the prices to go higher on the news.
#4 Greenland Deal Imminent?
There are reports on secret talks between the US and Greenland on opening new US bases on the island.
The topic has died down after the initial turmoil, after Trump soft-threatened to invade the island. However, it seems that talks have been ongoing since then and rumors suggest we might be close to a deal. The market reached 61% chance of a deal by the end of the year.
#5 New Market On The Romanian Government
There is a new market on the next Romanian prime minister after the president said he could be ready to name the next PM as early as next week.
The current frontrunners are Catalin Predoiu, the former deputy prime minister from the PNL, the party that ruled before the collapse, and Sorin Grindeanu, a memebr of the former coalition partner, PDS. The president mentioned he was not looking to experiment with his choice.
Wrap up
The global situation remains dynamic ahead of Trump visit to China.
We will continue to monitor the Iran situation as it develops.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.