Good morning! Trump's first day of the China visit is coming to an end and so far we've seen little progress. There are no big announcements and the White House resorted to a diplomatic statement with little substance post Trump-Xi meeting.
Outside of big meetings and the Iran war, it seems that we have a change of leadership coming in the UK and a snap election in Israel, which should be especially interesting considering the situation in the Middle East.
Oh, and we might have averted another global pandemic. This and more in today's Morning Brief.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
The chances for an Iran war peace deal reached their lowest point. After the first day of the Trump-Xi summit we had close to no news on any progress being made.
In the statement released by the White House we saw that both sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz shouldn't be militarized. But empty words do not resolve the situation.
Traders are increasingly pricing in a prolonged stalemate, in both no deal, but no war scenario:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. However, the IRGC reported that it had let through 30 ships since Wednesday.
That being said, the market resolves on official AIS data, which doesn't necessarily track all movement through the strait. As reported initially by Citrini, we had limited traffic through the strait ever since the blockade started. But even 30 boats a day is less than 30% of usual traffic.
The response of the energy markets was also muted:
#3 Nothing Ever Happens
Despite initial rumors, no person yet has been confirmed to have a hantavirus infection.
16 people are being monitored in the US, but for now all of them have reportedly tested negative. The initial positive case is yet to be confirmed by the CDC, which suggests that it was a false positive.
It seems we might be able to avoid another pandemic.
#4 Sir Keir Starmer Is Under Fire
Wes Streeting, one of the strongest candidates to replace Keir Starmer as the next PM, has resigned from the cabinet and called on Starmer to resign.
The former secretary of state for health and social care is perceived to be more on the right vs Starmer and has strong allies in the party. He fell short of directly challenging Starmer's leadership, but pretty soon this might change. Wolf are surely circling:
#5 Knesset Dissolved?
The governing coalition parties have submitted a bill to dissolve Knesset, sending prices on the end of June market higher.
The move is considered to be a strategic one as earlier the opposition submitted a similar bill. Analysts say that the coalition is aiming to control the timing and legislative process of the next election, rather than acting in defiance to Netanyahu.
Wrap up
The global situation remains dynamic as Trump and Xi discuss business, tariffs and the Iran situation.
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.