Good morning! It's Thursday already and there are still no news of any peace deal being finalized. The tensions in the Middle East run high, but traders do not really see kinetic escalation risk in the main theater.
Outside of the Middle East, today we showcase the Cuba crisis and a potential Trump x Diaz-Canel meeting as well as a new snapshot of the market ahead of the Colombia presidential election.
Take a look at the markets and stay ahead of the game!
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
Peace deal remains elusive as Iran and the US engaged in small skirmishes around the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite favorable reporting, traders no longer trust a deal is imminent. Permanent peace chances are down across the board, however so are war chances:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Traders see a 36% chance we will see traffic normalization by the end of June; price is essentially flat since Monday.
However, energy traders are cautiously bullish a deal with oil benchmarks trading well below $100 a barrel:
#3 A New Offensive In Gaza?
Outside Iran, the whole region is ridden with tensions. Israel continues to strike Lebanon, but traders also see increased chances for a new ground offensive in Gaza.
Yesterday, Israeli strikes on Gaza City killed new Hamas head. The phase 2 of the Gaza peace plan proved to be difficult to implement as both sides have different ideas in mind when it comes to governance of the strip. The wider recognition of the Palestinian state is also at stakes.
What we are seeing here is traders pricing in increasing frustration resulting from lack of progress across all fronts.
#4 What Will Happen With Cuba?
Outside of the Middle East, we saw a sudden spike on Trump talks to Diaz-Canel by end of June market. Traders currently see 31% chance it happens.
Traders expect the high-stakes meeting as tensions around the island rise. It is still unclear whether we will have a purely diplomatic solution or military force will be required.
#5 What To Expect From Colombia Presidential Election?
2 days ago we reported that Abelardo is closing in on Ivan ahead of the first round of the Colombia presidential election.
Today we have to say that the move was short-lived. The newest poll is showing a strong Ivan lead. Despite low trust in Colombian polling, traders are cautious to not end up on the wrong side of the trade.
The real fight, though, will happen in the second round.
Wrap up
That's all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.