Good morning! We still have no real update son the progress on the Iran war MOU. Looking at the day of the week, we should get some bullish news before the market close, followed by another escalatory rhetoric. Time will tell if we are right!
Outside of the Iran war, today we cover a controversial aliens.gov website, a new government in Slovenia (where traders made a terrible mistake) and Claude Mythos.
Let's look at the markets!
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
We are still awaiting progress on the proposed MOU. However, traders are less and less confident it will amount to anything.
Each time we get some news about the MOU, it seems to be more and more watered down. While some traders doubt there is any MOU to speak of, others just see it as a simple ceasefire extension:
It is increasingly clear that the key issues are still under discussion. The only good news coming out of it is that a return to hostilities is unlikely:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The most recent MOU rumor specified that Iran will have 30 days to clear the mines in the strait.
Seeing that, traders are cautious to update their forecast of the traffic normalization. A deal alone won't restart the traffic and the market, with only 38% chances of the traffic normalization, understands that.
That being said, energy traders seem to be more and more bullish we will have a deal with WTI below $90 a barrel and Brent at $91 per barrel:
#3 Different Kinds Of Aliens
Ever since the Trump admin registered aliens.gov, traders have been speculating on the purpose of the site.
Initially it was clear that the website should be used to publish information on non-human intelligence. But today the website launched, and after an extraterrestrial teaser it turned out to be about illegal immigration.
Big payday for non-human intelligence deniers.
#4 A Technicality In Slovenia
Some traders got a surprise on the Slovenia government market.
For over a month now SLS has been rumored to enter the governing coalition. And it did. Traders pushed the market up to bond territory, but they failed to realize that for the party to count, it needs to have at least one minister.
SLS has only one deputy and the newly formed government features 0 ministers from SLS, flipping the market at the last minute.
#5 Claude Mythos Is Coming
After it announced Claude 4.8, Anthropic also promised to release the Mythos model. Mythos was initially restricted to a handful of big tech corporations as its capabilities were considered too strong for public consumption.
However, the AI race is unforgiving. Mythos will be released in the coming weeks, possibly to get ahead of OpenAI as they also run a dense release schedule. Initially, traders saw close to 0 chance we will see it anytime soon, but the first spike in the price happened over a week ago.
Someone definitely saw what's coming.
Wrap up
That's all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.