Good morning! We have witnessed yet another naval battle in the Strait of Hormuz as US vessels transited through the strait under heavy Iranian fire. In return, the US launched missiles strikes on southern Iran. However, Trump reiterated his commitment to the ceasefire later on.

Outside of the Iran war, we have developments on Lebanon-related markets as Israel might be getting ready to cross the Litani River. And domestically, we will shed some light on the redistricting drama and a possible imminent release of the UFO files.

Let's take a look at the markets.

Main Events Of The Day

#1 Iran Peace

We are still awaiting Iranian response to the proposed peace MOU. Traders have mixed feelings about the possibility of a quick peace deal, with the chances of one by the end of May at 35%.

The current proposal is probably the closest both sides have gotten to date in terms of respective red lines. Additionally, Trump might want to wrap things up by the time he visits China.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed with the recent confrontation making the transit even more difficult.

Short of a peace deal, chances of traffic normalization remain low. The market has curbed its recent optimism; normalization chances by the end of the month are now at only 28%.

Energy markets reacted accordingly with Brent Crude once again hitting $100 per barrel:

#3 Lebanon War Heating Up

The market on Israel crossing the Litani River by the end of June jumped to 56% on reports of new strikes on the south of the country.

Despite the ceasefire being in effect, both sides of the conflict continue to attack each other. However, the intensity of fire is still below the level we've seen before the ceasefire.

#4 The Battle For Congress

This year's midterms are especially competitive, as both parties are engaged in an intensive redistricting war.

10 states now are projected to use new Congressional maps. Gerrymandering is hardly a new thing in American politics, but the intensity of the current effort is unprecedented. At the center of this effort is Trump as his polarizing style is what pushed both sides to go to great lengths to secure a November win.

#5 UFO Files Release Imminent?

Traders now see a 69% chance we will see the UFO files released this month as The New York Post reported, citing leaks, that the release would begin today.

Many UFO enthusiasts are anxiously awaiting the release, hoping to see the US government confirming the existence of non-human intelligence. Is this their day? We shall learn in the coming hours.

Wrap up

The Iran war continues its roller coaster. We do hope it ends soon, as the global political climate is complex enough already.

We will continue to monitor the Iran situation as it develops.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.