Good morning! The weekend was fairly stable. We had no good news on the Iran peace deal, but also no escalation, outside of a few drones and missiles. However, they've become a constant occurrence recently.
Outside of the Iran war, we have market updates on the 2028 Presidential race, Trump's recent insult spree and the election in Colombia.
Let's take a look at the markets!
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
Trump has reportedly sent a revised, more hardline, MOU proposal to Iran, sending permanent peace prices lower.
We've reached new lows now with only 39% chance for a deal by the end of July! After several imminent deals that never came, traders are pricing in a prolonged negotiation.
A full return to hostilities is not in the books:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Over the weekend chances for the traffic normalization by the end of July fell below 50% for the first time.
It's the first time since the market creation that we have a closed strait as the base case. However for a while now prediction markets have been running against conventional analysis from major investment banks. It seems that Polymarket traders are better than commodities analysts:
#3 AOC For President
The chances for AOC announcing her presidential run this year soared after an AtlasIntel poll placed her as a favorite to win the Democratic nomination.
AOC is only 36 years old, but she's a formidable force in the Democratic Party. However, Polymarket still has Gavin Newsom as the favorite to win the nomination:
Once we get further into runs announcements, we can expect the market to get more volatile.
#4 Trump's Insults
It's amazing that we have a market on who will Trump insult. It is even more amazing that these markets often resolve to Yes!
This time, Trump managed to insult Tucker Carlson just ahead of the deadline. However, at the beginning of May, his chances of insulting Tucker were at 90%, indicating that the action was expected.
#5 An Upset In Colombia
Abelardo unexpectedly won the first round of the Colombia presidential election.
While traders expected Abelardo to win in the run-off, it was the leftist Ivan Castro who was the favorite to win the first round. Now Abelardo has over 80% chance to win the election and nothing should stop him from getting it:
Wrap up
That's all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.